FNUS75 KGJT 152125
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMS MESA...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
325 PM MDT FRI OCT 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1520 MDT ON OCTOBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL BRING ONE FINAL
DAY OF SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES WHILE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START TO
AFFECT AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONE GOOD THING HOWEVER IS VALLEY
INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY-
SOUTHWESTERLY AND TEMPS AT MID-LEVELS WARM-UP SOME. EXPECT SMOKE
DISPERSAL TO BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
PRECIPITATION CLOSE TO...BUT NOT OVER...BURN SITE.


.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1100
                    THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4100-6300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (65200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING DOWNSLOPE AFTER 2100 0-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-31900 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    8 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11700-18700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD (145000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12300 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...RANDY CHAPPELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101015.SIMMS.02/GJT