FNUS75 KBOU 161606 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1005 AM MDT SAT OCT 16 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FIRE AREA...RESULTING IN EASTERLY WINDS. THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...OCCASIONAL GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE. SURFACE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY LIMITED...SO HUMIDITY READINGS WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS WYOMING. THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING BUT LIMITED RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER... BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DRY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60. MIN HUMIDITY........23-29%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST AFTER 1200. LAL.................1. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 6000-7000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35. MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-7 MPH. LAL.................1. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62 MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH...INCREASING TO 20-24 MPH AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 7600-8600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. WARMER. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/16-09 27 0 45 40 N 5 5 2 1 W24 2549 W 3 8873 P 10/16-10 27 0 47 39 NE 5 1 3652 W 6 21896 P 10/16-11 27 0 49 38 E 5 1 4755 SW 8 34918 P 10/16-12 16 0 51 37 SE 5 5 2 1 W22 5858 SW 9 47941 F 10/16-13 16 0 53 34 SE 6 1 6452 SW 12 63171 G 10/16-14 16 0 55 31 S 7 1 7046 SW 13 78402 G 10/16-15 13 0 56 29 S 7 7 3 1 W29 7640 SW 14 93632 G 10/16-16 13 0 54 31 S 7 1 5732 SW 13 67342 G 10/16-17 13 0 52 36 S 6 1 3823 SW 10 41051 F 10/16-18 8 0 48 41 S 5 5 3 1 W28 1914 SW 9 14761 P 10/16-19 8 0 45 46 SE 3 1 1343 SW 7 9981 P 10/16-20 8 0 42 50 SE 2 1 773 SW 5 5201 P 10/16-21 11 0 40 54 SE 2 2 3 1 W24 202 S 2 421 P 10/16-22 11 0 38 56 S 2 1 181 SW 3 458 P 10/16-23 11 0 37 58 W 3 1 161 W 3 496 P 10/17-00 16 0 37 58 NW 3 3 3 1 W24 141 W 5 534 P 10/17-01 16 0 35 58 NW 3 1 132 W 5 542 P 10/17-02 16 0 35 58 NW 3 1 123 W 6 549 P 10/17-03 14 0 34 57 NW 3 3 3 1 W23 113 W 6 557 P 10/17-04 14 0 33 56 NW 3 1 120 W 6 591 P 10/17-05 14 0 33 55 W 3 1 126 W 6 625 P 10/17-06 43 0 36 49 W 3 3 3 1 W21 132 W 6 659 P 10/17-07 43 0 37 50 W 5 1 292 W 8 2920 P 10/17-08 43 0 41 47 W 7 1 451 W 12 5181 P 10/17-09 43 0 46 42 SW 9 15 2 1 W22 610 W 14 7442 P 10/17-10 43 0 51 37 W 10 1 2938 W 17 58344 F 10/17-11 43 0 53 35 W 13 1 5265 W 21 109247 V 10/17-12 65 10 55 34 W 14 22 2 2 W23 7592 W 24 160149 E 10/17-13 65 10 56 33 W 14 2 8178 W 24 168363 E 10/17-14 65 10 56 32 W 14 2 8764 W 23 176577 E 10/17-15 65 10 57 32 W 14 22 3 2 W25 9350 W 23 184791 E 10/17-16 65 10 56 35 W 13 2 8095 W 22 157304 E 10/17-17 65 10 55 40 W 12 2 6840 W 22 129817 V 10/17-18 81 24 53 45 W 10 10 3 2 W28 5585 W 21 102330 V 10/17-19 81 24 49 49 W 8 2 3838 W 16 68940 G 10/17-20 81 24 46 51 W 6 2 2090 W 12 35549 P 10/17-21 81 24 44 52 W 5 5 3 2 W20 343 W 7 2159 P 10/17-22 81 24 42 56 W 5 1 319 W 7 1905 P 10/17-23 81 24 42 58 W 5 1 295 W 7 1651 P 10/18-00 73 24 40 62 W 5 5 2 1 W32 271 W 6 1397 P 10/18-01 73 24 39 65 W 5 1 259 W 6 1403 P 10/18-02 73 24 38 67 W 6 1 247 W 7 1409 P 10/18-03 73 24 38 69 W 6 6 2 1 W32 235 W 7 1415 P 10/18-04 73 24 37 71 W 5 1 230 SW 6 1224 P 10/18-05 73 24 37 72 SW 5 1 224 SW 6 1033 P 10/18-06 83 43 36 72 SW 3 3 2 1 W35 219 SW 5 842 P 10/18-07 83 43 37 69 S 3 1 986 SW 5 4842 P 10/18-08 83 43 38 68 SE 3 1 1753 SW 6 8842 P 10/18-09 83 43 40 61 SE 5 5 2 1 W28 2521 SW 6 12841 P 10/18-10 83 43 43 56 SE 6 1 3097 SW 7 20923 P 10/18-11 83 43 44 54 SE 7 1 3674 SW 9 29005 P 10/18-12 83 43 45 52 SE 7 7 2 1 W24 4250 SW 10 37087 P 10/18-13 83 43 45 51 SE 7 1 4289 W 10 37782 P 10/18-14 83 43 45 50 SE 6 1 4328 W 10 38477 P 10/18-15 83 43 46 51 SE 5 5 2 1 W22 4367 W 10 39172 P 10/18-16 83 43 45 56 SE 5 1 3891 W 9 31977 P 10/18-17 83 43 45 63 SE 3 1 3415 W 8 24781 P 10/18-18 80 43 43 72 SE 3 3 2 1 W18 2938 W 7 17585 P 10/18-19 80 43 40 81 SE 3 1 2084 W 6 12012 P 10/18-20 80 43 38 88 S 2 1 1231 W 5 6439 P 10/18-21 80 43 38 89 S 2 2 2 1 W15 377 SW 2 866 P 10/18-22 80 43 36 90 S 2 1 334 W 2 767 P 10/18-23 80 43 36 88 SW 2 1 291 W 2 668 P 10/19-00 80 43 35 87 SW 2 2 2 1 W14 247 W 2 569 P 10/19-01 80 43 34 87 SW 3 1 237 W 3 774 P 10/19-02 80 43 34 87 SW 6 1 226 W 5 979 P 10/19-03 80 43 34 86 SW 7 7 2 1 W21 215 W 6 1185 P 10/19-04 80 43 33 86 SW 8 1 209 W 7 1281 P 10/19-05 80 43 33 85 W 9 1 202 W 8 1378 P 10/19-06 71 10 33 85 W 9 9 2 1 W22 195 W 9 1475 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FIRE OPERATIONS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20101016.COWCR.01/BOU