FNUS73 KUNR 151516
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOSSIL...HELL CANYON R.D
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
916 AM MDT FRI OCT 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON OCTOBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMDITY ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MIXING HEIGHT
WILL RISE TO 2700 TO 3700 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE MIXED
LAYER WILL REMAIN LIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER...THE SMOKE
DISPERSAL RATING WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE POOR CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39.
RH..................MAX 67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 TO 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 59.
RH..................MIN 28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT
                    ...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 4 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 TO 3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 35.
RH..................MAX 76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 TO 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

$$
FORECASTER...GR
REQUESTED BY...USFS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101016.FOSSI.01/UNR