FNUS75 KGJT 162039
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMS MESA...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
239 PM MDT SAT OCT 16 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON OCTOBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE. SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING VERTICAL MIXING
AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. SURFACE INVERSIONS WILL
REESTABLISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET FROM RADIATIONAL COOLER UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.TODAY (SUNDAY)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER RIDGES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
                    4-8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM
                    THE WEST AT 10-15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING FAIR BY 1100, THEN TO EXCELLENT
                    BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......AFTER DARK...DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (105700 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (5300-9400 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR. IMPROVING TO
                    GOOD IN SHOWERS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...CHRIS CUOCO
REQUESTED BY...RANDY CHAPPELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101017.SIMMS.01/GJT