FNUS73 KUNR 171849
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOSSIL RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1249 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1245 MDT ON OCTOBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. THE MIXING HEIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...
THE SMOKE DISPERSAL CALCULATION WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY...DUE TO AN EXPECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHT AND BETTER MIXED
LAYER WINDS ...THE SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAIR CATEGORY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 60.
RH..................MIN 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 TO 3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........VARIABLY CLOUDY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE
                    EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36.
RH..................MAX 85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......FALLING TO 100 TO 600 FT AGL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND7 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 62.
RH..................MIN 29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 5 TO 9 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 TO 4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.

$$
FORECASTER...GR
REQUESTED BY...BK 631
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101017.FOSSI.01/UNR