FNUS74 KMAF 211553 FWSMAF SPOT FORECAST FOR CHISOS SURROGATE...STATE/BLM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1053 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1025 MDT ON OCTOBER 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING DANGER. .DISCUSSION... AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE CHISOS MOUNTAINS TODAY THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 70 WILL HELP PUSH MIN RH/S INTO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. ALSO AS RIDGE TOP WINDS INCREASE AND TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON RIDGE TOPS AND AREAS THAT ARE FAVORABLE ALIGNED WITH THE GENERAL WIND. MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE MIN RH/S WILL TREND DOWN. OF INTEREST IS AN EXPECTED DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CHISOS MOUNTAINS WITH MIN RH/S FALLING TO NEAR 10 PERCENT AND WIND INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON EXPOSED RIDGES AND FAVORABLY ALIGNED TOPOGRAPHY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68-71. MIN HUMIDITY........23-27 PCT. WIND (20 FT)........TERRAIN DOMINATED EARLY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 (VERY LOW). SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (MDT) 10 AM 2 PM SKY (%).........SUNNY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....SLGHT CHANCE SLGHT CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTM TEMP............57 67 RH..............55 27 20 FT WIND DIR..S SW 20 FT WIND SPD..3 10 20 FT WIND GUST. MIX HGT (FT)....1000 3000 TRANS WIND DIR..S SW TRANS WIND SPD..4 9 HAINES INDEX....3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53-56. MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PCT. WIND (20 FT)........TERRAIN DOMINATED UNDER 5 MPH ON PROTECTED SLOPES. ON EXPOSED RIDGES SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 (VERY LOW). SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. EXCEPT ON RIDGE TOPS. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TEMP............69 60 57 RH..............32 45 50 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 9 20 FT WIND GUST. MIX HGT (FT)....3000 500 BLW100 TRANS WIND DIR..SW W W TRANS WIND SPD..8 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67-70. MIN HUMIDITY........20-24 PCT. WIND (20 FT)........TERRAIN DOMINATED ON SLOPES LESS THAN 5 MPH. SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH ON EXPOSED RIDGES. HAINES INDEX........4 (LOW). SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (27000 KNOT-FT). TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TEMP............53 58 66 RH..............62 41 27 20 FT WIND DIR..W SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 8 11 20 FT WIND GUST. MIX HGT (FT)....500 1500 2500 TRANS WIND DIR..W SW W TRANS WIND SPD..5 7 11 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...MURDOCH REQUESTED BY...NM-ADC TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101021.CHISO.02/MAF