FNUS75 KBOU 242218 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FHTR 100 PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 416 PM MDT SUN OCT 24 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LIGHT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM BEING PUSHED BY A STRONG JET APPROACHES. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WEST THIS EVENING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE BURN AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND THEREFORE ENHANCING SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 4 INCHES BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND ANOTHER 5 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG JET REMAINS ABOVE THE STATE. THE JET WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY. EXPECT CONTINUED SNOWFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE WINDS STAY IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND ENOUGH MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. WILL START TO DRY OUT THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....25. MAX HUMIDITY........92%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 13-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WIDESPREAD SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....32. MIN HUMIDITY........77%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 14-24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 3800-4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....7. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 14-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN AROUND 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....28. MIN HUMIDITY........51%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 36-44 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 2. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COOL. LOWS AROUND 4. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FHTR 100 PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/24-15 83 50 37 78 SW 14 23 2 1 W49 2545 W 24 53136 F 10/24-16 90 50 35 78 SW 15 28 1 1962 SW 23 40195 F 10/24-17 97 50 34 78 SW 15 26 1 1379 SW 22 27254 P 10/24-18 100 60 32 80 SW 16 28 2 1 W54 797 SW 21 14314 P 10/24-19 100 60 32 80 SW 17 1 705 SW 21 12564 P 10/24-20 100 60 32 81 SW 18 1 614 SW 21 10814 P 10/24-21 100 60 32 83 SW 18 31 2 1 W51 522 SW 20 9063 P 10/24-22 100 60 31 87 SW 17 1 534 SW 21 9521 P 10/24-23 100 60 31 90 SW 16 1 546 SW 21 9978 P 10/25-00 100 100 31 92 SW 15 25 2 1 W71 558 SW 22 10436 P 10/25-01 100 100 31 90 SW 15 1 555 SW 22 10415 P 10/25-02 100 100 32 87 SW 15 1 553 SW 22 10395 P 10/25-03 100 100 32 85 SW 15 25 2 1 W68 551 SW 22 10374 P 10/25-04 100 100 32 86 SW 14 1 554 SW 21 10242 P 10/25-05 100 100 31 88 SW 14 1 556 SW 21 10109 P 10/25-06 99 100 30 90 SW 13 22 2 1 W67 558 SW 21 9976 P 10/25-07 99 100 31 91 W 13 1 570 SW 20 9940 P 10/25-08 99 100 31 92 W 14 1 582 W 20 9904 P 10/25-09 99 100 31 91 W 15 25 2 1 W40 594 W 20 9868 P 10/25-10 99 100 32 91 W 16 1 1725 W 24 45865 F 10/25-11 99 100 32 90 W 18 1 2855 W 29 81862 G 10/25-12 94 90 32 89 W 20 35 2 1 W48 3986 NW 35 117859 V 10/25-13 94 90 32 85 W 21 1 4543 NW 32 125878 V 10/25-14 94 90 32 81 W 21 1 5099 NW 31 133897 V 10/25-15 94 90 31 77 W 20 33 2 1 W71 5655 NW 29 141915 V 10/25-16 94 90 29 79 W 18 1 4486 NW 30 114239 V 10/25-17 94 90 25 86 W 17 1 3316 W 31 86563 G 10/25-18 90 70 22 91 W 16 28 3 1 W49 2146 W 31 58887 F 10/25-19 90 70 20 93 W 16 1 1616 W 29 42825 F 10/25-20 90 70 19 93 W 16 1 1087 W 25 26764 P 10/25-21 90 70 16 99 W 16 28 3 1 NW51 557 W 22 10702 P 10/25-22 90 70 15 100 W 16 1 617 W 23 12181 P 10/25-23 90 70 14 100 W 16 1 540 W 22 10230 P 10/26-00 90 70 13 100 W 16 25 2 1 NW43 463 W 21 8278 P 10/26-01 90 70 12 100 W 17 1 500 W 21 8805 P 10/26-02 90 70 11 100 W 17 1 537 W 20 9331 P 10/26-03 90 70 11 100 W 18 30 2 1 W44 574 W 20 9857 P 10/26-04 90 70 10 100 W 18 1 698 W 20 12079 P 10/26-05 90 70 9 100 W 18 1 823 W 20 14302 P 10/26-06 70 60 9 100 W 18 30 2 1 W67 948 W 20 16524 P 10/26-07 70 60 8 100 W 18 1 1009 W 21 18785 P 10/26-08 70 60 7 100 W 17 1 1071 W 23 21046 P 10/26-09 70 60 7 100 W 17 28 2 1 W73 1132 W 24 23307 P 10/26-10 70 60 13 97 W 17 1 2178 W 28 58734 F 10/26-11 70 60 18 75 W 18 1 3224 W 31 94161 G 10/26-12 70 60 22 64 W 20 31 2 1 W75 4270 W 35 129589 V 10/26-13 70 60 25 59 W 21 1 4753 W 38 157009 E 10/26-14 70 60 26 55 W 22 1 5236 W 40 184429 E 10/26-15 70 60 28 51 W 22 35 2 1 W79 5719 W 43 211850 E 10/26-16 70 60 28 51 W 22 1 5418 W 41 197795 E 10/26-17 70 60 25 57 W 21 1 5117 W 41 183739 E 10/26-18 70 60 24 59 W 21 33 2 1 W79 4816 W 40 169684 E 10/26-19 70 60 21 65 W 21 1 3414 W 36 117552 V 10/26-20 70 60 15 80 W 21 1 2012 W 30 65420 G 10/26-21 70 60 12 88 W 21 33 2 1 W71 610 W 25 13288 P 10/26-22 70 60 10 89 W 21 1 600 W 25 13004 P 10/26-23 70 60 9 87 W 21 1 590 W 25 12720 P 10/27-00 70 40 8 87 W 20 31 2 1 W69 580 W 24 12436 P 10/27-01 70 40 7 85 W 17 1 588 W 23 11615 P 10/27-02 70 40 6 87 W 14 1 596 W 21 10795 P 10/27-03 70 40 5 87 W 12 18 2 1 W74 604 W 20 9974 P 10/27-04 70 40 5 89 W 12 1 607 W 20 10294 P 10/27-05 70 40 4 94 W 13 1 611 W 20 10613 P 10/27-06 67 27 3 99 W 14 22 2 1 W82 614 W 21 10933 P 10/27-07 67 27 3 98 W 14 1 667 W 20 11338 P 10/27-08 67 27 2 100 W 13 1 720 W 18 11743 P 10/27-09 67 27 2 100 W 13 21 2 1 W90 773 W 18 12148 P 10/27-10 67 27 8 86 W 13 1 1808 W 21 36566 P 10/27-11 67 27 16 71 W 12 1 2843 W 23 60983 G 10/27-12 61 27 21 65 W 12 18 2 1 W89 3877 W 25 85400 G 10/27-13 61 27 24 61 W 12 1 4456 W 28 108519 V 10/27-14 61 27 25 58 W 13 1 5035 W 30 131639 V 10/27-15 61 27 28 53 W 13 21 2 1 W92 5614 W 32 154758 E 10/27-16 61 27 28 54 W 13 1 5110 W 31 136706 V 10/27-17 61 27 25 60 W 13 1 4606 W 30 118654 V 10/27-18 15 2 24 62 W 13 21 2 1 W90 4101 W 29 100601 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...SARAH WESTENDORF REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101025.FHTR1.01/BOU