FNUS74 KMAF 251254
FWSMAF

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHISOS SURROGATE...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
754 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON OCTOBER 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING DANGER.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CHISOS MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE
SUSTAINED 20 FOOT SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RH IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH FIRE
DANGER TO PROMOTE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND
SPREAD. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING AND RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
WITH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 13 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........TERRAIN DOMINATED WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH EARLY THIS
                    MORNING...INCREASING TO WEST 17 TO 22 MPH...WITH
                    GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 (LOW).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (100000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.


TIME (CDT)      9 AM         1 PM         5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
TEMP............63           76           80
RH..............25           16           13
20 FT WIND DIR..VRB          SW           W
20 FT WIND SPD..5            14           17
20 FT WIND GUST.             22           26
MIX HGT (FT)....1000         4500         5000
TRANS WIND DIR..SW           W            W
TRANS WIND SPD..5            14           18
HAINES INDEX....4            4            4

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MAX HUMIDITY........AROUND 45 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    TERRAIN DOMINATED AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 (VERY LOW).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR WITH DEVELOPING INVERSION.

TIME (CDT)      9 PM         1 AM         5 AM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
TEMP............68           59           55
RH..............20           30           43
20 FT WIND DIR..W            W            NW
20 FT WIND SPD..8            6            6
20 FT WIND GUST.
MIX HGT (FT)....3500         BLW100       BLW100
TRANS WIND DIR..W            W            W
TRANS WIND SPD..18           13           10
HAINES INDEX....3            3            3

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 20 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WIND 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    TERRAIN DOMINATED UNDER 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 (VERY LOW).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD (98000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      9 AM         1 PM         5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR       CLEAR        CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
TEMP............58           73           74
RH..............39           23           22
20 FT WIND DIR..W            W            SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6            5            3
20 FT WIND GUST.
MIX HGT (FT)....500          3000         5000
TRANS WIND DIR..W            W            W
TRANS WIND SPD..3            12           18
HAINES INDEX....2            2            3

$$

FORECASTER...LINDSEY
REQUESTED BY...RICHARD GATEWOOD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101025.CHISO.01/MAF