FNUS75 KBOU 280940 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK RX 2010...WEST METRO FIRE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 330 AM MDT THU OCT 28 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AIR. WARMING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN INVERSION OFF THE GROUND...LIMITING MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY. LIGHT WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION WILL BE OF CONCERN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEAKENING OF THE INVERSION TO ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER... BRINGING THE TRANSPORT WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 MPH EVEN THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF MARGINALLY FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN FORECAST...THE WINDS OFF THE GROUND WILL LIKELY ALSO BE LIGHT AND DISPERSION WILL NOT BE AS GOOD...SO WATCH FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION WILL REDEVELOP AROUND 1700 WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE SURFACE WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE ON GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68. MIN HUMIDITY........10-12%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 1-4 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST AROUND 5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4 MPH UNTIL 0900...BECOMING SOUTH 10 MPH BY 1400. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 1000. 4000-5000 FT AGL AFTER 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-38. MAX HUMIDITY........45-55%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-77. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 1200. 8000 FT AGL AFTER 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR CREEK RX 2010. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/28-03 0 0 28 40 SW 9 14 4 1 NW43 175 SW 8 1221 P 10/28-04 0 0 28 41 SW 8 1 162 SW 7 1026 P 10/28-05 0 0 27 41 W 7 1 149 W 6 830 P 10/28-06 0 0 27 41 W 6 6 4 1 NW40 136 W 6 634 P 10/28-07 0 0 27 40 W 3 1 443 SW 5 1184 P 10/28-08 0 0 33 31 SW 2 1 749 SW 3 1734 P 10/28-09 0 0 42 22 CALM 1 4 1 W38 1056 SW 2 2284 P 10/28-10 0 0 51 15 CALM 1 2291 SW 5 14205 P 10/28-11 0 0 57 12 SE 2 1 3527 SW 7 26126 P 10/28-12 0 0 61 11 E 3 3 4 1 W43 4762 SW 9 38048 P 10/28-13 0 0 63 11 E 5 1 4907 W 10 46560 F 10/28-14 0 0 64 11 E 5 1 5052 W 13 55073 F 10/28-15 0 0 65 12 E 5 5 3 1 W43 5197 W 14 63586 G 10/28-16 0 0 64 14 SE 3 1 4469 W 13 52298 F 10/28-17 0 0 62 16 CALM 1 3741 W 13 41010 F 10/28-18 10 0 57 21 CALM 1 3 1 W39 2244 W 8 16615 P 10/28-19 10 0 52 26 S 5 1 1572 W 9 11778 P 10/28-20 10 0 49 30 SW 8 1 901 W 10 6941 P 10/28-21 10 0 46 34 W 10 16 4 1 W25 229 W 10 2104 P 10/28-22 10 0 44 37 W 10 1 192 W 9 1612 P 10/28-23 11 0 42 41 W 8 1 155 W 8 1121 P 10/29-00 11 0 40 44 W 7 7 4 1 W32 118 W 6 629 P 10/29-01 10 0 38 45 W 7 1 111 W 7 614 P 10/29-02 8 0 37 43 W 7 1 104 W 7 599 P 10/29-03 7 0 38 41 W 8 8 4 1 W29 98 W 7 585 P 10/29-04 9 0 38 43 W 8 1 93 W 8 601 P 10/29-05 12 0 38 46 W 9 1 88 W 8 617 P 10/29-06 14 0 36 52 W 9 14 4 1 W33 83 W 9 633 P 10/29-07 14 0 37 52 SW 9 1 108 W 8 772 P 10/29-08 15 0 39 48 SW 8 1 133 SW 8 910 P 10/29-09 15 0 47 37 SW 7 7 4 1 W32 159 SW 8 1049 P 10/29-10 14 0 56 28 SW 6 1 1498 SW 9 17127 P 10/29-11 14 0 61 25 S 6 1 2838 W 12 33204 P 10/29-12 13 0 65 23 S 5 5 3 1 W25 4178 W 14 49282 F 10/29-13 14 0 73 18 S 5 1 5661 W 15 78290 G 10/29-14 14 0 74 17 SW 3 1 7143 W 16 107298 V 10/29-15 15 0 75 17 SW 3 3 2 1 W26 8626 W 18 136306 V 10/29-16 14 0 74 18 SW 3 1 7286 W 18 113943 V 10/29-17 13 0 70 21 SW 3 1 5946 W 17 91580 G 10/29-18 12 0 65 26 SW 3 3 3 1 W20 4606 W 17 69218 G 10/29-19 11 0 59 32 SW 5 1 3205 W 15 47329 F 10/29-20 11 0 56 35 SW 5 1 1805 W 13 25440 P 10/29-21 10 0 53 39 SW 6 6 3 1 NW14 405 W 10 3551 P 10/29-22 12 0 51 42 SW 7 1 323 W 10 2804 P 10/29-23 14 0 48 45 SW 7 1 241 W 9 2057 P 10/30-00 16 0 45 49 W 8 8 4 1 W17 159 W 9 1310 P 10/30-01 14 0 44 53 W 8 1 152 W 9 1223 P 10/30-02 12 0 43 54 W 8 1 145 W 9 1137 P 10/30-03 10 0 43 54 W 8 8 3 1 W21 138 W 9 1050 P 10/30-04 16 0 43 54 W 8 1 129 W 8 945 P 10/30-05 21 0 43 55 W 7 1 121 W 8 841 P 10/30-06 27 0 42 59 W 7 7 3 1 W24 113 W 8 737 P 10/30-07 28 0 42 58 SW 7 1 144 W 7 837 P 10/30-08 29 0 44 54 SW 6 1 174 SW 7 938 P 10/30-09 30 0 50 44 SW 6 6 3 1 W16 205 SW 6 1038 P 10/30-10 31 0 56 33 S 6 1 1481 SW 6 7842 P 10/30-11 31 0 61 28 S 6 1 2756 SW 6 14646 P 10/30-12 32 0 64 25 S 7 7 3 1 W23 4032 SW 6 21450 P 10/30-13 33 0 70 20 S 8 1 5008 SW 8 36188 P 10/30-14 34 0 71 19 S 10 1 5984 SW 9 50927 F 10/30-15 35 0 72 19 S 12 17 2 1 W35 6961 SW 10 65666 G 10/30-16 37 0 70 19 SW 13 1 5060 SW 13 49236 F 10/30-17 42 0 67 22 SW 15 1 3159 SW 14 32806 P 10/30-18 44 5 62 26 SW 16 24 2 1 SW40 1258 SW 15 16376 P 10/30-19 44 5 58 32 SW 17 1 10/30-20 44 5 55 37 W 20 1 10/30-21 44 5 52 43 W 21 31 1 10/30-22 44 5 50 47 W 22 1 10/30-23 44 5 48 52 W 23 1 10/31-00 44 5 45 56 W 23 35 1 10/31-01 44 5 44 58 W 23 1 10/31-02 44 5 43 56 W 22 1 10/31-03 44 5 43 53 W 21 31 1 10/31-04 44 5 43 49 W 20 1 10/31-05 44 5 43 47 W 18 1 10/31-06 21 0 42 47 W 16 24 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...ANTHONY PISCOPO REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101028.BEARC.01/BOU