FNUS73 KPAH 301652 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR GOLDEN POND SEVERITY...USFS LBL NAT REC AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1152 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1145 CDT ON OCTOBER 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS NOT FALLEN AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST THIS MORNING...IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO FORECAST VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING OVER THE FOREST...BUT GUSTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE PROBLEMS WITH ANY FIRES. LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER RH SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH NOT MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA...EXPECT SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AND BEYOND. THE RECENT FROST/FREEZE WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF GREEN FINE FUELS THAT REMAIN. DRY AIR WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE WEEK AS A COUPLE MORE DRY COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........59 AT IGNITION...MAX 69. RH..................34 PERCENT AT NOON...MIN 20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH... GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON RIDGES AND ALONG KENTUCKY LAKE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 29 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............59 64 66 67 67 65 61 RH..............34 28 22 20 20 20 26 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 9 9 9 7 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 20 20 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.20 23 25 26 28 29 30 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 40. RH..................MAX 73 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 31 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 3 TO 8 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 51 48 46 44 43 RH..............35 46 54 60 68 70 20 FT WIND......SW 4 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3 SW 2 SW 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2800 2300 1600 1100 1000 1000 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 30 SW 31 SW 31 W 28 SW 18 S 8 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 69. RH..................MIN 23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-3900 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 6 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............42 54 65 67 RH..............73 45 28 23 20 FT WIND......S 1G5 SE 3G5 SE 3G5 E 3G5 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 1800 2500 3500 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 0 S 2 S 5 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...YORK REQUESTED BY...REGINA ROBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101030.GOLDE.01/PAH