FNUS73 KPAH 311357 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTERMILK HILL BLOWDOWN UNIT 18...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 857 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON OCTOBER 31. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BURN AREA THIS MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST. VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FAIR TO POOR AROUND SUNSET. VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS. ON MONDAY...SMOKE DISPERSION WILL IMPROVE GREATLY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG INVERSION WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........51 AT IGNITION...MAX 66. RH..................56 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2000-2900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 22 MPH. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............51 55 59 62 63 64 64 62 58 RH..............56 49 42 38 36 34 34 36 40 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE E E NE NE E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.6 9 12 14 16 18 21 22 22 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36. RH..................MAX 70 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 22 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 0 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............53 48 45 43 41 40 RH..............48 56 60 65 67 70 20 FT WIND......NE 3 NE 4 NE 4 NE 4 NE 4 NE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....700 600 700 900 800 800 TRANSPORT WIND..E 22 E 16 SE 7 S 0 S 0 S 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63. RH..................MIN 30 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO EAST 23 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............39 50 60 62 RH..............70 46 33 32 20 FT WIND......NE 3G10 E 6G15 NE 6G10 NE 6G15 MIX HGT (FT)....900 1800 2400 1800 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 SE 8 E 17 E 24 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...YORK REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101031.BUTTE.02/PAH