FNUS75 KPUB 012256
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOUR ELK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
456 PM MDT MON NOV 1 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE MAX TEMPS
BEING A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY.  THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE ALL THAT STRONG...BUT IN THE MIXING LAYER ON TUESDAY  THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT SMOKE DISPERSAL IN THE GOOD CATEGORY FOR
SEVERAL HOUR IN THE AFTERNOON.   HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY THE WINDS IN THE
MIXING LAYER ARE LIGHTER AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMOKE DISPERSAL
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.


TRANSPORT WINDS ON THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND 11 MPH...AND WITH AN EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHT OF ABOUT 7200 FT AGL...
THAT WOULD PUT SMOKE DISPERSAL INTO THE GOOD CATEGORY FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.



.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(46 PERCENT) UNTIL 1800...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL 1800.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29F.
MAX HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE AROUND 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1800...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53F.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    NORTH 10-15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    POOR.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

$$
FORECASTER...EVENSON
REQUESTED BY...JOHN  MARKALUNAS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101101.FOURE.01/PUB