FNUS73 KPAH 030250 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR OAKWOOD BOTTOMS UNIT 3 3A 4...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 950 PM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CDT ON NOVEMBER 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MIXING HEIGHTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 1700 FT AGL LEVEL UNTIL JUST BEFORE NOON...CAUSING SOME DISPERSION CONCERNS WITH THE 930 AM IGNITION TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND PICK UP TO CLOSER TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT AN INVERSION WELL UNDER 1000 FT AGL WILL LIKELY CAUSE DISPERSION ISSUES OVERNIGHT. MUCH BETTER DISPERSION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE ONLY REAL CONCERN BEING THE STRENGTH AND GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........51 AT IGNITION...MAX 66. RH..................58 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2000 FT AGL BY NOON AND 3300 FT AGL BY 3 PM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 MPH AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............46 51 55 59 62 63 64 64 63 58 RH..............58 50 45 39 36 34 32 31 32 40 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE N N N N N NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.6 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 12 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 35 TO 37 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............54 49 46 44 42 41 RH..............46 58 65 70 76 76 20 FT WIND......NW 4 NW 4 NW 4 NW 4 NW 4 NW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....300 100 300 300 300 200 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 14 NW 24 N 32 N 36 N 37 N 36 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 5 5 5 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 57. RH..................MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-4600 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 3400-4700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 23 TO 32 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............40 47 54 56 RH..............79 60 45 40 20 FT WIND......NW 5 NW 7G15 NW 10G20 NW 8G15 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1800 4100 4400 TRANSPORT WIND..N 32 N 26 NW 23 NW 26 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...SPAETH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101103.OAKWO.01/PAH