FNUS73 KEAX 041323 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 1...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 823 AM CDT THU NOV 4 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON NOVEMBER 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SPOT FORECAST LOCATION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE AMPLE MIXING ALLOWS SUSTAINED WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 33 MPH EXPECTED. WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM IN THE MIDDLE 30 PERCENT RANGE BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE HIGHER FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW. MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT DIMINISHING WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER IS PROJECTED FOR SUNDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54. MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 15 TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900-5400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 28 TO 32 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........8 10 11 10 7 6 4 3 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............46 48 51 52 53 54 51 47 RH..............54 49 43 39 37 34 36 40 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..13 17 21 22 22 21 18 15 20 FT WIND GUST.15 25 30 30 30 30 25 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 26. MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............43 41 39 38 37 36 34 32 31 30 29 27 RH..............46 51 54 57 59 61 65 68 70 72 74 77 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50. MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4100 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 14 TO 17 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............26 30 34 38 41 44 47 48 49 50 48 44 RH..............79 68 58 51 45 41 38 34 32 29 32 36 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...DEROCHE REQUESTED BY...SAM VANOURNEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101104.UNIT1.02/EAX