FNUS73 KPAH 050339 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR OAKWOOD BOTTOMS UNIT 9A 11 17...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1039 PM CDT THU NOV 4 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CDT ON NOVEMBER 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH CLOSE TO THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN HIGH...BUT DROP SHARPLY TOWARD SUNRISE. LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO RISE IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH THROUGH 1 AM...THEN DROP OFF SHARPLY OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF ANY RAIN WILL MARKEDLY DECREASE BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY AND MAY BE MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DIP BELOW 1700 FOOT AGL MINIMUMS FROM 4 AM CDT THROUGH 9 AM CDT...BUT SHOULD RISE AT OR ABOVE 2000 FEET BY IGNITION TIME. ANY LINGERING SMOKE FROM THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA OVERNIGHT MAY BE FORCED TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BLUFFS AND ANY DWELLINGS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. FRIDAYS MIXING HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE 35 PERCENT ON FRIDAY...DESPITE A RETURN OF STRONGER WINDS DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST GUSTS FROM IGNITION TIME THROUGH DUSK ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 12 TO 22 MPH. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INTERMITTENT FLURRIES LATE IN THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34. RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6700-8500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTH 30 TO 36 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 22 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............39 38 37 36 RH..............62 75 81 84 20 FT WIND......N 8 N 6 NW 6 NW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....8500 6700 4700 2500 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 N 30 N 36 NE 22 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........40 AT IGNITION...MAX 48. RH..................65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 900-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-5000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5300-6500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4400 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 20 TO 29 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST AROUND 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............35 36 38 40 43 44 46 46 47 47 45 42 RH..............80 75 65 56 50 46 44 43 40 41 41 47 20 FT WIND DIR..NW N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 20 20 25 25 25 20 20 20 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.6 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.0 5.3 4.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW NW N N N N N NW NW W SW TRANSP WIND SPD.0 7 18 29 28 24 20 21 23 22 14 6 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101105.OAKWO.01/PAH