FNUS75 KBOU 091520 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR GRIZZLY RX PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 819 AM MST TUE NOV 9 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE SITE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY 1100...WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS TO PROVIDE GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....25-30. MIN HUMIDITY........70-75%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 9-15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR. GOOD AFTER 1300. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 2300...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....10-15. MAX HUMIDITY........90-100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 11-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 2200...THEN 1000-2000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2100. POOR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1100...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....20-25. MIN HUMIDITY........65-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .VETERANS DAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR GRIZZLY RX PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/09-08 100 87 23 88 W 10 16 3 1 S37 1957 W 14 23713 P 11/09-09 100 87 23 82 W 10 1 2530 W 14 31191 P 11/09-10 100 87 24 78 W 9 1 3103 W 14 38669 P 11/09-11 94 84 26 76 W 9 15 2 1 S32 3675 SW 15 46147 F 11/09-12 94 84 26 76 W 10 1 4021 W 16 58305 F 11/09-13 94 84 26 75 W 13 1 4366 W 18 70464 G 11/09-14 94 84 26 75 W 14 22 2 1 S22 4711 W 21 82622 G 11/09-15 94 84 25 74 W 15 1 4569 W 22 85426 G 11/09-16 94 84 24 78 W 15 1 4427 W 23 88230 G 11/09-17 89 70 23 82 W 15 24 2 1 S17 4285 W 24 91034 G 11/09-18 89 70 21 83 W 14 1 4038 W 23 81847 G 11/09-19 89 70 19 82 W 14 1 3792 W 22 72660 G 11/09-20 89 70 17 81 W 13 21 2 1 W15 3545 W 21 63474 G 11/09-21 89 70 16 83 W 13 1 2774 W 20 49143 F 11/09-22 89 70 16 85 W 14 1 2003 W 20 34813 P 11/09-23 70 33 15 88 W 14 22 2 1 W15 1232 W 20 20482 P 11/10-00 70 33 15 91 W 14 1 1401 W 20 23416 P 11/10-01 70 33 14 87 W 13 1 1570 W 20 26350 P 11/10-02 68 18 14 89 W 13 21 2 1 NW24 1739 W 20 29284 P 11/10-03 68 18 14 89 W 13 1 1512 W 18 25097 P 11/10-04 68 18 13 90 W 12 1 1285 W 18 20910 P 11/10-05 67 15 13 90 SW 12 18 2 1 NW39 1058 W 18 16723 P 11/10-06 67 15 13 92 SW 10 1 1066 W 17 15721 P 11/10-07 67 15 13 94 SW 10 1 1074 W 16 14720 P 11/10-08 67 15 16 100 SW 9 15 3 1 NW41 1082 W 15 13718 P 11/10-09 67 15 15 90 SW 9 1 1665 W 15 23376 P 11/10-10 67 15 18 80 SW 9 1 2248 W 16 33033 P 11/10-11 70 28 21 73 SW 9 15 3 1 W32 2830 W 17 42690 F 11/10-12 70 28 22 71 W 10 1 3017 W 17 45938 F 11/10-13 70 28 23 68 W 10 1 3204 W 17 49186 F 11/10-14 70 28 23 69 W 10 16 3 1 W25 3391 W 17 52434 F 11/10-15 70 28 23 68 W 9 1 3114 W 15 41503 F 11/10-16 70 28 22 74 W 7 1 2837 W 12 30572 P 11/10-17 90 56 20 80 W 5 5 3 1 W13 2560 W 9 19640 P 11/10-18 90 56 19 84 NW 3 1 2270 SW 7 13875 P 11/10-19 90 56 19 88 CALM 1 1979 SE 3 8109 P 11/10-20 90 56 19 91 CALM 1 2 1 S12 1688 CALM 2344 P 11/10-21 90 56 19 91 CALM 1 1588 E 2 3614 P 11/10-22 90 56 19 96 NE 2 1 1488 E 3 4884 P 11/10-23 89 56 18 99 E 3 3 3 1 S16 1387 E 5 6154 P 11/11-00 89 56 18 100 E 5 1 1346 E 7 7330 P 11/11-01 89 56 18 98 NE 5 1 1304 E 8 8507 P 11/11-02 89 56 18 97 NE 6 6 3 1 S17 1262 NE 9 9683 P 11/11-03 89 56 17 96 NE 7 1 1329 NE 10 11966 P 11/11-04 89 56 17 96 NE 7 1 1397 NE 12 14249 P 11/11-05 90 60 17 95 NE 8 13 3 1 S 3 1464 NE 13 16532 P 11/11-06 90 60 17 95 NE 8 1 1513 NE 13 16058 P 11/11-07 90 60 17 96 NE 8 1 1562 NE 12 15584 P 11/11-08 90 60 17 100 NE 8 13 3 1 NE 5 1611 NE 10 15110 P 11/11-09 90 60 19 96 NE 7 1 2421 NE 9 16022 P 11/11-10 90 60 21 90 NE 6 1 3232 NE 7 16934 P 11/11-11 90 60 24 84 NE 5 5 3 1 NE 6 4042 NE 5 17846 P 11/11-12 90 60 24 82 NE 5 1 4216 NE 5 18129 P 11/11-13 90 60 25 78 NE 5 1 4391 N 5 18412 P 11/11-14 90 60 25 77 NE 5 5 2 1 NW 6 4565 N 5 18695 P 11/11-15 90 60 25 75 N 5 1 4129 N 5 17469 P 11/11-16 90 60 22 83 N 5 1 3694 N 5 16242 P 11/11-17 65 27 20 90 N 5 5 2 1 NW13 3259 N 6 15016 P 11/11-18 65 27 18 95 N 5 1 3027 N 5 11994 P 11/11-19 65 27 18 97 NE 3 1 2795 N 3 8972 P 11/11-20 65 27 17 100 NE 3 3 2 1 NW15 2563 N 2 5951 P 11/11-21 65 27 18 94 N 3 1 2580 NW 3 8371 P 11/11-22 65 27 17 100 NW 2 1 2596 W 5 10792 P 11/11-23 49 20 16 100 W 2 2 2 1 N18 2613 W 6 13212 P 11/12-00 49 20 15 99 W 2 1 2519 W 7 15192 P 11/12-01 49 20 15 92 W 2 1 2426 W 8 17173 P 11/12-02 49 20 15 88 W 3 3 2 1 N22 2333 NW 9 19153 P 11/12-03 49 20 15 83 W 5 1 2122 NW 10 18649 P 11/12-04 49 20 14 81 W 5 1 1912 W 12 18146 P 11/12-05 25 4 14 79 W 6 6 2 1 N23 1701 W 12 17643 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JON MYERS REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101109.GRIZZ.01/BOU