FNUS72 KJAX 191946
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ARABIA BAY...NWS WFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
246 PM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1800 EST ON NOVEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE FIRE WEATHER REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT 4 TO 7 MPH.

WINDS LATE TONIGHT MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BRIEFLY
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP THE
SMOKE PLUME DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

ON SATURDAY...A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH
VALUES. LOWEST RH VALUES OF BETWEEN 44 AND 48 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ARABIA BAY AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH FROM THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 3 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LVORI...............8.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........9      1      14     14     27     30
WEATHER COV.....AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE
TEMP............62     56     53     50     48     48
RH..............49     67     81     89     95     100
20 FT WIND......E 5    E 2    E 3    E 2    E 2    NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....4900   1000   600    600    400    300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 10   E 9    E 6    E 6    E 3    E 7
LVORI...........8      8      8      8      8      7
DISPERSION INDX.61     12     6      3      2      3
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
                    LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 7 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....42.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........30     34     38     38     42     38
WEATHER COV.....AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............47     52     66     71     74     74
RH..............100    94     68     54     48     47
20 FT WIND......NE 1   NE 2   E 5    E 5    SE 6   E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5             10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....500    800    2600   2600   4500   4800
TRANSPORT WIND..E 7    E 9    SE 9   SE 9   SE 8   SE 9
LVORI...........7
DISPERSION INDX.3      4      4      30     42     51
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...SANDRIK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20101117.ARABI.01/JAX