FNUS75 KPUB 171406
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MSR 2...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
706 AM MST WED NOV 17 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND A FEW STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE BURN SITE THROUGH 1000.  WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
BY LATE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.  DRIER WARMER
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE BURN SITE BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS.  SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

SMOKE DISPERSALS WILL BE POOR THIS MORNING WITH VERY GOOD
DISPERSALS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING OCCURS.
POOR DISPERSALS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD TO VERY
GOOD DISPERSALS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH WINDS 3 TO 7 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
                    NEAR 18 MPH THROUGH 1000 THEN BECOMING WEST TO
                    NORTHWEST AT 2 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 27 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN AROUND 10
                    MPH UNTIL 1600...THEN SOUTH AROUND 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1300. POOR AFTER 1600.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-25 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH AFTER 1800.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 18 MPH UNTIL 0400...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH UNTIL 1000 BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
                    18 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 5000 FT AGL UNTIL
                    1600...THEN 2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...PETER WOLF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101117.MSR2_.01/PUB