FNUS76 KMFR 180645
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST FORK 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1045 PM PST WED NOV 17 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 PST ON NOVEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE BURN SITE THIS
MORNING. VERY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF COLD RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...TO 3000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN 2500 FEET AGL TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH DECREASING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT SHOWERS STILL LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT THE BURN SITE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY AND MAINTAINS COLD AIR
AND PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THAT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE
THE MOST SNOWFALL AT THE BURN SITE WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AND LOW SNOW LEVELS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN IN THE MORNING. SNOW AFTER 1PM AT AND ABOVE
                    3000 FEET AGL. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
                    BY NIGHTTIME. A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED
                    BELOW 3000 FEET AGL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-39.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL IN THE MORNING BECOMING 1500 FT AGL IN THE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX BELOW 2500
                    FEET AGL. 1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 2500
                    FEET AGL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-32.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX BELOW
                    2500 FEET AGL. AROUND AN INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
                    EXPECTED.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....32-35.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND 2 TO 4 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL IN THE MORNING BECOMING 3000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 26 TO 28. HIGHS 31 TO 33. SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO
11 MPH. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 2200 FEET. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 26 TO 31. HIGHS 30 TO 33. SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO
11 MPH. SNOW LEVEL 2000 FEET. 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
.MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS 26 TO 31. HIGHS 31 TO 34. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. SNOW LEVEL 2200 FEET. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

$$
FORECASTER...KEENE
REQUESTED BY...SEAN HENDRIX
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101118.WESTF.01/MFR