FNUS75 KPIH 191045
FWSPIH

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBA 2 RX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
345 AM MST FRI NOV 19 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBA 2 RX...BLM-SAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
345 AM MST FRI NOV 19 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MST ON NOVEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE ONSET OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM LOOKS AS
IF IT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT FOR THE BURN AREA. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA PROMOTING MORE OF A
SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LOCATED AT AND ABOVE AN INVERSION LAYER NEAR 7000 FT MSL.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE BURN AREA SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LIKELY FALL TO VALLEY FLOORS LATE TONIGHT EARLY SATURDAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO PRESS INLAND.


.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........0900 AROUND 40. HIGH 44 TO 48.
RH..................0900 AROUND 65 PERCENT. MIN NEAR 50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST OR DOWNVALLEY UP TO TO 8 MPH AT
                    0900 MST. BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8
                    MPH.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......STRONG MORNING INVERSION UP THROUGH 7500 FT
MSL...MODERATING THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 6500-7000 FT MSL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 MPH UNDER THE
                    INVERSION.  IF YOU CREATE ENOUGH HEAT WITH YOUR
                    PILES YOU MIGHT BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
                    INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AND TAP THE SOUTHWEST
                    WINDS AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST
                    LIKEY SNOW...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT OF COLDER AIR
                    WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURE.........LOW 32 TO 35.
RH..................MAX 95-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST UP TO 10 MPH
                    OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................25 PERCENT BY AROUND 0500 MST...80 PERCENT
                    THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 6500 FT MSL.
MIXING WINDS........SURFACE WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST BECOMING MORE
                    SOUTHWEST OFF THE SURFACE UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2.
LAL.................1.

$$

REQUESTED BY...TONY ERICKSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE