FNUS75 KPUB 191416
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MSR 4...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
716 AM MST FRI NOV 19 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN IS A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TODAY.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY.  THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING THE
FRONT HANGING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURN AREA.  ONE FORECAST MODEL
SHOWS THE FRONT COMING INTO THE BURN AREA AROUND 1700...BUT THEN MOVING BACK
TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ANOTHER FORECAST MODEL SHOWS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING CLOSE TO THE BURN AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND NOT REALLY MAKING MUCH OF A PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.  EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG.



.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73F.
MIN HUMIDITY........3-8 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST 10-15 MPH UNTIL AROUND 1400 THEN PROBABLY BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS A FRONT APPROACHES.
                    THE FRONTAL TIMING IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT...BUT WL PROBABLY
                    MOVE INTO THE BURN AREA BETWEEN 1600 AND 1800...RESULTING IN
                    EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 5900 FT AGL UNTIL
                    1600...THEN 3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN
                    VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(42 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36F.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........VARIABLE 3-6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1100 THEN MOSTLY SUNNY(40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1100 THEN SOUTHWEST 13-18 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 6600 FT AGL UNTIL
                    1600...THEN 2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN
                    POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...EVENSON
REQUESTED BY...PETER WOLF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101119.MSR4_.01/PUB