FNUS75 KPUB 201431
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST   EAST BEAR SPRINGS...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
731 AM MST SAT NOV 20 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ONE FORECAST
MODEL SHOWS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING INTO THE BURN AREA BETWEEN 1100
AND 1200 TODAY...WITH ANOTHER FORECAST MODEL NOT SHOWING THIS HAPPENING
UNTIL 1400.  HOWEVER THE BURN AREA LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND EASTERLY WINDS. IF THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST TO 25 MPH
AND THIS ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED LOW HUMIDITIES IS WHY A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GENERAL AREA...ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BURN AREA.

OVERNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH EVEN FARTHER EASTWARD AS
AN UPPER JET MOVES OVER THE STATE. THUS THROUGH THE NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE.  EVEN
STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH...AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...DEPENDING ON
HOW LOW THE HUMIDITIES ACTUALLY GET.  AT THIS TIME WE HAVE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST FOR THE BURN AREA ON SUNDAY. THUS
WE DO NOT HAVE A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(51 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67F.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........VARIABLE 3-7 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
                    10-15 MPH POSSIBLY SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(42 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42F.
MAX HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-16 MPH...SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    UNTIL 1900
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 39 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(31 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
                    UNTIL 1200 THEN SOUTHWEST 20-30 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 40 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 8600 FT AGL UNTIL
                    1600...THEN 2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 40 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    EXCELLENT UNTIL 1500...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL
                    1600...THEN GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...EVENSON
REQUESTED BY...PETER WOLF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101120.WESTE.01/PUB