FNUS72 KJAX 240946
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ARABIA BAY...NWS WFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
446 AM EST WED NOV 24 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0600 EST ON NOVEMBER 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE FIRE SITE TODAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE AT TIMES...WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY. CRITICALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF DENSE
                    FOG AND SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-3200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....16.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........80     73     73     73     53     53
WEATHER COV.....AREAS  AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....FOG    FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............57     58     69     75     77     76
RH..............100    100    82     64     59     61
20 FT WIND......NW 1   N 1    NE 2   E 2    E 2    E 3
20 FT WIND GUST.                     5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....600    1100   2100   2100   3200   2200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 6    NW 7   N 6    N 6    NE 5   E 7
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-700 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LVORI...............10.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........53     56     56     56     67     67
WEATHER COV.....                            AREAS  AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG    FOG
TEMP............68     64     61     59     58     57
RH..............80     94     100    100    100    100
20 FT WIND......E 3    E 5    E 6    E 5    SE 3   SE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5                           5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....2200   1100   700    700    200    700
TRANSPORT WIND..E 7    E 9    E 7    E 7    SE 5   SE 5
LVORI...........10     10     10     10     10     10
DISPERSION INDX.18     6      5      5      2      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.THANKSGIVING DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-4300 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....69.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...SHULER
REQUESTED BY...SHULER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20101123.ARABI.01/JAX