FNUS72 KJAX 302223
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ARABIA BAY...NWS WFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
523 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1634 EST ON NOVEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 5 PM WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DUE TO STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 25
PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SUSTAINED
WINDS BELOW 15 MPH WILL PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL RED FLAGS AT THE SITE.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1900...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 16 TO 20 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....17.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........70     81     81     81     92     92
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............67     60     56     53     51     49
RH..............91     100    100    100    100    90
20 FT WIND......S 12   S 10   SW 10  W 12   W 13   W 13
20 FT WIND GUST.20     15     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....2400   1100   800    800    600    900
TRANSPORT WIND..S 20   S 16   W 17   W 17   NW 18  NW 20
LAL.............3      4      4      4      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY
                    (10-20 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 0700...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-4000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....75.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........92     21     21     21     6      6
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............47     48     52     55     56     55
RH..............81     66     46     36     31     27
20 FT WIND......NW 13  NW 14  NW 15  NW 16  NW 16  NW 13
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     25     30     30     25
MIX HGT (FT)....900    1100   2500   2500   4000   2400
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 20  NW 21  NW 25  NW 25  NW 28  NW 22
LAL.............4      1      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...CARROLL
REQUESTED BY...CARROLL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20101130.ARABI.02/JAX