FNUS75 KGJT 010516
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE MESA PILES...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 PM MST TUE NOV 30 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MST ON DECEMBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE BURN SITE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPROVED MIXING CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM
EXITS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH STRONG WARMING ALOFT
CONTINUING...RESULTING IN STRONG INVERSIONS AND POOR MIXING CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....25-30 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    WEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THA 20000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING FAIR (50000 KNOT-FT) BY 1300. EXCEPT
                    EXCELLENT IN AND NEAR SHOWERS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING
                    TO AROUND 2000 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....2-7 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH BY 1900.

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF COLTON
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN STEVENS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101201.BLUEM.01/GJT