FNUS75 KGJT 060034
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR RAY MESA II...CCFZ
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
534 PM MST SUN DEC 5 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MST ON DECEMBER 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WEAK STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FIRE SITE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
LATEST SOUNDINGS OVER THE AREA SHOWED DISTURBANCE UNLIKELY TO
ERODE SHALLOW INVERSION OVER THE AREA AND AS A RESULT CLEARING
INDICES UNSATISFACTORY...UNLESS IN THE PRESENCE OF PRECIPITATION.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM STRONGER WINDS AND AN INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR MONDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT OVERTURNING TO
ERODE INVERSION FOR MARGINAL CLEARING INDICES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING INDEX......200...INCREASING TO 340 IN THE AFTERNOON...
    REACHING 500 DURING SHOWERS ON THE FIRE SITE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-25 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......DECREASING TO 150 IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 MPH...THEN NORTHWEST 5 MPH AFTER
    MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-47 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......150 INCREASING TO 520 IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...NORV LARSON
REQUESTED BY...MATT MADARIAGA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101206.RAYME.01/GJT