FNUS75 KBOU 080400 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK BOWL...CSFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 855 PM MST TUE DEC 7 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A LARGE FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER COLORADO AT THIS TIME WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT BATCH OF WIND AND CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SLOPE AND VALLEY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TRANSITION TO A GUSTY DOWNSLOPING CHINOOK TYPE WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE BURN AREA MAY AGAIN REMAIN PARTIALLY SHELTERED FROM THESE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FLOWING DOWN OFF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DUE TO THE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE TRANSPORT WINDS. HOWEVER ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW. NOTE...SURFACE WINDS GIVEN IN THE FIREWEATHER TABLE BELOW DO NOT REFLECT THE SUBTLE SLOPE AND VALLEY WIND SHIFTS EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....16-23. MAX HUMIDITY........58-64%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-53. MIN HUMIDITY........22-27%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-9 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST 7-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 18 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14-20 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN 24-33 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...RISING TO 4200- 5200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN BECOMING VERY GOOD AFTER 1300. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 0300...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-29. MAX HUMIDITY........64-71%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN WEST 12-22 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 26-34 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 37-48 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 1200-2200 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900..THEN FAIR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-50%). BREEZY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51. MIN HUMIDITY........36-43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. WEST WINDS 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 38 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN 10-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40-50 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN WEST 25-35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN RISING TO 3800-4800 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR CREEK BOWL. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/07-20 29 0 26 49 W 9 15 5 1 NW45 704 W 10 6392 P 12/07-21 29 0 25 48 W 10 1 584 W 12 5638 P 12/07-22 29 0 24 46 W 12 1 465 W 13 4883 P 12/07-23 16 0 24 44 W 13 21 4 1 N49 346 W 14 4128 P 12/08-00 16 0 23 44 W 13 1 301 W 14 3560 P 12/08-01 16 0 22 44 W 13 1 257 W 14 2991 P 12/08-02 16 0 21 44 W 13 21 3 1 N49 213 W 13 2422 P 12/08-03 16 0 21 45 W 14 1 193 W 14 2284 P 12/08-04 16 0 20 47 W 15 1 174 W 15 2147 P 12/08-05 16 0 19 50 W 15 24 4 1 NW45 154 W 15 2009 P 12/08-06 16 0 19 56 W 15 1 148 W 15 1861 P 12/08-07 16 0 20 61 W 14 1 143 W 14 1713 P 12/08-08 16 0 23 60 W 13 21 4 1 NW41 137 W 13 1564 P 12/08-09 16 0 30 49 W 13 1 1558 W 17 34457 P 12/08-10 16 0 36 40 W 13 1 2980 W 22 67350 G 12/08-11 31 0 42 34 W 13 21 2 1 NW40 4401 W 26 100243 V 12/08-12 31 0 45 30 W 14 1 4750 W 30 125004 V 12/08-13 31 0 47 28 W 16 1 5100 W 33 149765 V 12/08-14 29 6 48 27 W 17 28 2 1 NW43 5450 W 37 174526 E 12/08-15 29 6 47 26 W 18 1 4931 W 39 166833 E 12/08-16 29 6 46 26 W 20 1 4413 W 43 159141 E 12/08-17 36 10 41 29 W 21 33 3 1 W39 3895 W 45 151448 E 12/08-18 36 10 39 31 W 22 1 3218 W 43 121705 V 12/08-19 36 10 37 33 W 23 1 2542 W 40 91962 G 12/08-20 36 10 36 35 W 24 39 2 1 NW52 1866 W 38 62218 G 12/08-21 36 10 35 36 W 24 1 1767 W 37 56602 F 12/08-22 36 10 34 38 W 24 1 1654 W 39 55284 F 12/08-23 55 10 33 40 W 24 39 2 1 W56 1541 W 40 53967 F 12/09-00 55 10 32 42 W 25 1 1397 W 45 52906 F 12/09-01 55 10 31 44 W 26 1 1254 W 48 51846 F 12/09-02 67 10 30 47 W 28 44 2 1 W38 1110 W 53 50786 F 12/09-03 67 10 29 50 W 29 1 1087 W 54 50873 F 12/09-04 67 10 29 54 W 30 1 1065 W 55 50960 F 12/09-05 57 27 28 59 W 31 49 2 1 NW32 1042 W 56 51047 F 12/09-06 57 27 27 61 W 35 1 975 W 56 48117 F 12/09-07 57 27 26 64 W 38 1 907 W 58 45188 F 12/09-08 56 27 28 60 W 39 62 3 1 W52 839 W 58 42258 F 12/09-09 56 27 32 52 W 36 1 2085 W 55 93075 G 12/09-10 56 27 35 46 W 30 1 3331 W 52 143893 V 12/09-11 55 27 38 41 W 25 40 3 1 W71 4577 W 49 194710 E 12/09-12 55 27 40 38 W 23 1 4738 W 51 209430 E 12/09-13 55 27 41 37 W 23 1 4899 W 53 224151 E 12/09-14 55 27 41 36 W 23 37 3 1 NW68 5060 W 54 238871 E 12/09-15 55 27 41 37 W 24 1 4668 W 53 213744 E 12/09-16 55 27 40 38 W 24 1 4276 W 51 188616 E 12/09-17 47 18 36 44 W 24 39 3 1 W63 3885 W 48 163489 E 12/09-18 47 18 33 48 W 21 1 3749 W 43 141098 V 12/09-19 47 18 32 49 W 17 1 3614 W 37 118706 V 12/09-20 47 18 31 50 W 14 22 2 1 W58 3478 W 32 96315 G 12/09-21 47 18 30 49 W 13 1 3481 W 29 88269 G 12/09-22 47 18 29 49 W 13 1 3484 W 26 80223 G 12/09-23 59 18 29 50 W 13 21 2 1 W52 3486 W 24 72176 G 12/10-00 59 18 28 51 W 14 1 3134 W 24 65228 G 12/10-01 59 18 27 54 W 15 1 2781 W 24 58280 F 12/10-02 59 18 26 57 W 17 28 2 1 W51 2429 W 24 51331 F 12/10-03 59 18 25 60 W 18 1 2061 W 25 44567 F 12/10-04 59 18 25 63 W 20 1 1693 W 26 37802 P 12/10-05 46 21 24 67 W 21 33 3 1 W48 1325 W 26 31038 P 12/10-06 46 21 23 70 W 21 1 1371 W 26 32003 P 12/10-07 46 21 23 73 W 21 1 1417 W 26 32968 P 12/10-08 46 21 25 70 W 21 33 2 1 NW47 1463 W 26 33933 P 12/10-09 46 21 29 60 W 21 1 2709 W 29 71746 G 12/10-10 46 21 33 52 W 21 1 3955 W 31 109559 V 12/10-11 31 21 36 46 W 21 33 2 1 NW43 5200 W 32 147373 V 12/10-12 40 21 38 42 W 21 1 5389 W 33 154189 E 12/10-13 48 21 39 40 W 21 1 5578 W 33 161006 E 12/10-14 57 21 40 40 W 21 33 2 1 W49 5766 W 33 167823 E 12/10-15 65 21 39 40 W 21 1 5432 W 36 168265 E 12/10-16 74 21 38 42 W 21 1 5097 W 38 168708 E 12/10-17 82 35 34 49 W 20 31 2 1 W56 4763 W 41 169150 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ALLEN GALLAMORE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101208.BEARC.01/BOU