FNUS75 KBOU 090321 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK BOWL...CSFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 815 PM MST WED DEC 8 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WELL DEVELOPED MOUNTAIN WAVE CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND WILL DO SO THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FOR THAT REASON AND BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING JET STREAM...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON EXPOSED RIDGETOPS AND EXPOSED UPPER SLOPES FROM AROUND 0200 MST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THESE GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NOTE...20-FOOT WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS PROVIDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER TABLE BELOW SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION AS THE TABLE DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VARIABILITY IN LOCAL WINDS CAUSED BY THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS UPWIND FROM THE BURN SITE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32. MAX HUMIDITY........44-52%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 9-18 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40-50 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 0200...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2300...BECOMING POOR AFTER 0400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1000...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-46. MIN HUMIDITY........27-33%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST 9-16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32-48 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 3800-4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-25. MAX HUMIDITY........72-79%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 8-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL UNTIL 0100...THEN 1600-2600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0300. FAIR AFTER 0500. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1700...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-39. MIN HUMIDITY........46-54%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH INCREASING TO 15-22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-52 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0900...BECOMING EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR CREEK BOWL. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/08-19 47 0 38 23 W 15 1 2532 W 45 96025 G 12/08-20 47 0 37 25 W 15 24 2 1 NW41 1623 W 47 65956 G 12/08-21 47 0 36 26 W 15 1 1532 W 48 63438 G 12/08-22 47 0 35 27 W 15 1 1441 W 48 60920 G 12/08-23 12 0 35 29 W 15 24 3 1 NW62 1350 W 49 58403 F 12/09-00 12 0 34 31 W 17 1 1321 W 52 59354 F 12/09-01 12 0 33 33 W 20 1 1293 W 54 60306 G 12/09-02 50 10 32 35 W 21 33 3 1 W63 1265 W 55 61258 G 12/09-03 50 10 31 37 W 21 1 1116 W 53 52312 F 12/09-04 50 10 30 38 W 20 1 968 W 51 43365 F 12/09-05 28 21 29 40 W 18 30 2 1 W73 820 W 48 34419 P 12/09-06 28 21 28 42 W 17 1 878 W 48 36502 P 12/09-07 28 21 28 44 W 17 1 937 W 47 38584 P 12/09-08 41 21 29 43 W 16 25 3 1 W64 995 W 47 40666 F 12/09-09 41 21 33 38 W 15 1 2022 W 47 81825 G 12/09-10 41 21 36 35 W 13 1 3049 W 46 122984 V 12/09-11 44 21 39 32 W 12 18 2 1 W69 4076 W 46 164143 E 12/09-12 44 21 40 30 W 12 1 4377 W 46 172728 E 12/09-13 44 21 41 29 W 12 1 4678 W 45 181313 E 12/09-14 59 21 42 29 W 13 21 2 1 W63 4979 W 44 189897 E 12/09-15 59 21 41 30 W 13 1 4864 W 40 170811 E 12/09-16 59 21 40 32 W 13 1 4749 W 37 151726 E 12/09-17 56 30 36 38 W 13 21 2 1 W60 4634 W 33 132640 V 12/09-18 56 30 33 42 W 13 1 4432 W 32 123186 V 12/09-19 56 30 32 46 W 14 1 4230 W 31 113732 V 12/09-20 56 30 31 50 W 14 22 2 1 W58 4126 W 30 108579 V 12/09-21 56 30 30 49 W 13 1 3889 W 30 101669 V 12/09-22 56 30 29 49 W 13 1 3652 W 30 94758 G 12/09-23 73 30 29 50 W 13 21 2 1 W54 3415 W 30 87848 G 12/10-00 73 30 28 51 W 14 1 3106 W 30 80786 G 12/10-01 73 30 27 54 W 15 1 2797 W 30 73725 G 12/10-02 73 30 26 57 W 17 28 2 1 W47 2487 W 31 66663 G 12/10-03 73 30 25 59 W 18 1 2121 W 32 58562 F 12/10-04 73 30 25 63 W 20 1 1754 W 33 50462 F 12/10-05 64 40 24 67 W 21 33 2 1 NW53 1387 W 36 42361 F 12/10-06 64 40 23 71 W 21 1 1449 W 38 48057 F 12/10-07 64 40 23 75 W 21 1 1510 W 40 53753 F 12/10-08 64 40 25 73 W 21 33 2 1 NW55 1571 W 44 59449 F 12/10-09 64 40 29 64 W 21 1 2567 W 45 101210 V 12/10-10 64 40 33 57 W 21 1 3564 W 46 142970 V 12/10-11 63 40 36 52 W 21 33 3 1 W53 4560 W 47 184731 E 12/10-12 63 40 38 47 W 21 1 4994 W 48 211109 E 12/10-13 63 40 39 44 W 21 1 5428 W 51 237487 E 12/10-14 63 40 40 43 W 21 33 2 1 W75 5861 W 52 263865 E 12/10-15 63 40 39 45 W 21 1 5671 W 49 243306 E 12/10-16 63 40 38 49 W 21 1 5481 W 46 222747 E 12/10-17 94 70 34 59 W 20 31 2 1 W75 5290 W 44 202188 E 12/10-18 94 70 32 61 W 18 1 5103 W 40 178408 E 12/10-19 94 70 30 59 W 17 1 4916 W 36 154628 E 12/10-20 94 70 29 57 W 16 25 3 1 NW53 4729 W 32 130849 V 12/10-21 94 70 28 56 W 15 1 4639 W 29 118189 V 12/10-22 94 70 28 56 W 14 1 4549 W 26 105529 V 12/10-23 99 70 27 57 W 14 22 3 1 W51 4460 W 24 92869 G 12/11-00 99 70 26 58 W 14 1 3955 W 26 87516 G 12/11-01 99 70 25 59 W 15 1 3450 W 28 82164 G 12/11-02 99 70 24 60 NW 15 24 3 1 W53 2945 W 30 76811 G 12/11-03 99 70 23 61 NW 15 1 3139 W 32 87030 G 12/11-04 99 70 23 61 NW 16 1 3334 NW 33 97249 G 12/11-05 76 70 22 62 NW 16 25 2 1 W49 3528 NW 35 107468 V 12/11-06 76 70 21 61 NW 16 1 3829 NW 37 124978 V 12/11-07 76 70 21 61 NW 16 1 4130 NW 39 142488 V 12/11-08 76 70 21 56 NW 16 25 2 1 NW74 4430 NW 41 159997 E 12/11-09 76 70 24 49 NW 16 1 5084 NW 43 186565 E 12/11-10 76 70 26 44 NW 15 1 5738 NW 43 213133 E 12/11-11 82 70 28 40 NW 15 24 2 1 NW76 6392 NW 43 239700 E 12/11-12 82 70 29 38 NW 15 1 6623 NW 41 240204 E 12/11-13 82 70 30 37 NW 15 1 6853 NW 40 240708 E 12/11-14 82 70 30 37 NW 15 24 2 1 NW77 7083 NW 39 241212 E 12/11-15 82 70 29 38 NW 15 1 6396 NW 38 213210 E 12/11-16 82 70 29 39 NW 14 1 5709 NW 37 185208 E 12/11-17 52 30 25 44 NW 14 22 2 1 NW83 5022 NW 36 157205 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ALLEN GALLAMORE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101209.BEARC.01/BOU