FNUS75 KGJT 092259
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUFFER CREEK...VAIL FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
359 PM MST THU DEC 9 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON DECEMBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM FRIDAY NOON THROUGH SATURDAY AT 3
PM MST...

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS WILL FALL FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PASSES OVER THE BURN SITE. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 6 TO 9 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.


.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING WITH A LULL FROM AROUND 1000 TO 1200...
                    THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-37 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-80%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-6 MPH...INCREASING TO 10-15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GENERALLY POOR BEFORE 1100 WITH BETTER MIXING
                    NEAR SHOWERS...BECOMING GOOD BY THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH...THEN INCREASING TO 30 MPH
                    AFTER NOON...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100%). SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-23 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-100%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 23 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....27-30 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-80%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-8 MPH UNTIL NOON...THEN INCREASING
                    TO 8-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 MPH.

.OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SNOW WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
SATURDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS RELATIVELY LOW...HOWEVER MECHANICAL SCOURING BY THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WILL AID SMOKE DISPERSAL.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...T TALBOT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101210.BUFFE.01/GJT