FNUS75 KBOU 132159 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SKY ISLAND...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 259 PM MST MON DEC 13 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...WITH SOME COOLING AND SLIGHT MOISTENING WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS. THE MODERATE FLOW ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSION EACH AFTERNOON. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BURN SITE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....22. MAX HUMIDITY........42%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....54. MIN HUMIDITY........12%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 33-44 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO 5800-6800 FT AGL AFTER 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....27. MAX HUMIDITY........48%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-48 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR BY 2400. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1700...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....45. MIN HUMIDITY........25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-16 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 24 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 5600-6600 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 9. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 11. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SKY ISLAND. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/13-14 31 0 53 11 W 12 18 4 1 NW54 5775 W 37 184705 E 12/13-15 31 0 53 11 W 12 1 4643 W 35 143423 V 12/13-16 31 0 53 12 W 12 1 3511 W 32 102141 V 12/13-17 37 0 48 14 W 12 12 4 1 NW60 2379 W 30 60859 G 12/13-18 37 0 40 19 W 12 1 1745 W 24 42262 F 12/13-19 37 0 37 22 W 12 1 1111 W 18 23665 P 12/13-20 37 0 35 24 W 12 12 3 1 NW73 477 W 13 5068 P 12/13-21 37 0 32 28 W 12 1 390 W 12 4010 P 12/13-22 37 0 31 31 W 10 1 304 W 10 2951 P 12/13-23 37 0 30 33 W 9 9 4 1 W71 217 W 10 1893 P 12/14-00 37 0 29 34 W 7 1 194 W 8 1489 P 12/14-01 37 0 27 36 SW 5 1 172 W 7 1086 P 12/14-02 37 0 26 36 SW 3 3 3 1 W75 149 W 6 683 P 12/14-03 37 0 25 39 SW 3 1 144 W 5 627 P 12/14-04 37 0 24 39 S 3 1 140 W 5 572 P 12/14-05 41 0 25 39 S 3 3 2 1 W69 135 SW 5 517 P 12/14-06 41 0 24 40 S 3 1 134 W 5 552 P 12/14-07 41 0 23 41 SW 2 1 133 W 5 588 P 12/14-08 41 0 22 42 W 2 2 2 1 NW53 132 W 6 623 P 12/14-09 41 0 25 38 SW 3 1 951 W 10 14565 P 12/14-10 41 0 31 30 SW 5 1 1770 W 15 28508 P 12/14-11 41 0 37 24 SW 6 6 2 1 W68 2588 W 18 42450 F 12/14-12 41 0 44 18 SW 7 1 4199 W 28 124472 V 12/14-13 41 0 50 13 SW 7 1 5810 W 36 206494 E 12/14-14 41 0 51 12 SW 7 7 2 1 W69 7420 W 45 288517 E 12/14-15 41 0 54 12 SW 7 1 6706 W 46 267619 E 12/14-16 41 0 52 14 SW 6 1 5993 W 47 246721 E 12/14-17 34 5 49 16 W 14 22 2 1 W62 5279 W 49 225823 E 12/14-18 34 5 43 21 W 15 1 4121 W 46 171590 E 12/14-19 34 5 40 24 W 16 1 2964 W 44 117358 V 12/14-20 34 5 39 25 W 16 25 2 1 W69 1807 W 40 63125 G 12/14-21 34 5 38 25 W 15 1 1764 W 38 59212 F 12/14-22 34 5 37 26 W 14 1 1721 W 37 55301 F 12/14-23 61 2 37 27 W 13 21 2 1 W74 1678 W 36 51389 F 12/15-00 61 2 35 30 W 14 1 1413 W 35 42539 F 12/15-01 61 2 34 32 W 16 1 1148 W 33 33690 P 12/15-02 61 2 33 35 W 17 28 2 1 W66 884 W 32 24840 P 12/15-03 61 2 32 38 W 18 1 715 W 31 19495 P 12/15-04 61 2 31 40 W 18 1 546 W 29 14150 P 12/15-05 51 10 30 43 W 18 30 2 1 W67 378 W 26 8806 P 12/15-06 51 10 29 45 W 16 1 410 W 25 8704 P 12/15-07 51 10 28 48 W 14 1 442 W 23 8603 P 12/15-08 51 10 29 46 W 12 18 2 1 W81 474 W 21 8502 P 12/15-09 51 10 33 39 W 12 1 2088 W 24 54713 F 12/15-10 51 10 37 33 W 12 1 3702 W 28 100925 V 12/15-11 54 17 41 29 W 13 21 2 1 W61 5317 W 32 147136 V 12/15-12 54 17 43 26 W 14 1 5723 W 35 175002 E 12/15-13 54 17 44 25 W 14 1 6130 W 38 202869 E 12/15-14 54 17 44 25 W 14 22 2 1 W67 6536 W 40 230735 E 12/15-15 54 17 44 25 W 12 1 6129 W 37 197623 E 12/15-16 54 17 42 26 W 9 1 5722 W 32 164511 E 12/15-17 82 35 37 32 W 7 7 2 1 W76 5314 W 29 131399 V 12/15-18 82 35 34 36 W 6 1 5134 W 26 119647 V 12/15-19 82 35 32 38 W 5 1 4954 W 25 107895 V 12/15-20 82 35 31 40 W 5 5 2 1 W64 4774 W 23 96143 G 12/15-21 82 35 30 42 W 5 1 4489 W 21 83965 G 12/15-22 82 35 29 43 W 3 1 4205 W 20 71787 G 12/15-23 64 22 29 44 W 3 3 2 1 W56 3920 W 17 59610 F 12/16-00 64 22 27 46 W 3 1 3156 W 15 45176 F 12/16-01 64 22 26 48 W 3 1 2392 W 14 30742 P 12/16-02 64 22 25 51 SW 3 3 2 1 W64 1628 W 12 16308 P 12/16-03 64 22 24 52 SW 3 1 1529 W 12 14648 P 12/16-04 64 22 23 55 SW 5 1 1430 SW 10 12988 P 12/16-05 84 23 22 57 SW 5 5 2 1 W66 1331 SW 10 11329 P 12/16-06 84 23 21 60 SW 3 1 1579 SW 8 11122 P 12/16-07 84 23 20 64 S 3 1 1826 W 7 10915 P 12/16-08 84 23 21 63 S 2 2 2 1 W66 2073 W 6 10709 P 12/16-09 84 23 24 57 S 2 1 3238 W 9 29854 P 12/16-10 84 23 26 52 SE 3 1 4402 W 12 48999 F 12/16-11 73 10 29 47 SE 3 3 2 1 W58 5567 W 14 68144 G 12/16-12 73 10 30 43 SE 3 1 6264 W 15 82252 G 12/16-13 73 10 31 41 S 2 1 6961 W 16 96359 G 12/16-14 73 10 31 39 S 2 2 2 1 W59 7658 W 16 110466 V 12/16-15 73 10 31 38 SE 3 1 6859 W 14 84456 G 12/16-16 73 10 30 38 E 5 1 6060 NW 10 58445 F 12/16-17 74 19 25 46 NE 6 6 2 1 W54 5261 NW 7 32435 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DAVE HOWARD REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101214.SKYIS.01/BOU