FNUS75 KBOU 151632 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 925 AM MST WED DEC 15 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES TODAY WITH SNOW DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW UNTIL 1700...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....31. MIN HUMIDITY........85-90%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2300...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....6. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1700...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....23. MIN HUMIDITY........71%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 4600-5400 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS AROUND 5. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 11. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/15-09 100 100 31 77 W 14 1 3745 W 33 106057 V 12/15-10 100 100 31 80 W 13 1 4237 W 31 111464 V 12/15-11 92 88 32 80 W 13 21 2 1 W58 4730 W 29 116871 V 12/15-12 92 88 32 75 W 13 1 4889 W 28 118000 V 12/15-13 92 88 31 68 NW 13 1 5048 W 28 119130 V 12/15-14 92 88 31 64 NW 12 18 2 1 W60 5207 W 26 120259 V 12/15-15 92 88 29 66 NW 10 1 4963 W 26 112670 V 12/15-16 92 88 27 72 W 8 1 4718 W 25 105081 V 12/15-17 84 47 25 78 W 7 7 2 1 W67 4473 W 25 97492 G 12/15-18 84 47 22 82 W 7 1 4215 W 22 82142 G 12/15-19 84 47 20 86 NW 7 1 3958 W 20 66791 G 12/15-20 84 47 18 89 NW 7 7 2 1 W66 3700 W 16 51440 F 12/15-21 84 47 16 92 NW 6 1 2630 W 13 35235 P 12/15-22 84 47 14 95 NW 6 1 1561 W 9 19030 P 12/15-23 86 24 13 97 NW 5 5 2 1 W61 492 W 7 2825 P 12/16-00 86 24 11 100 NW 3 1 436 W 6 2241 P 12/16-01 86 24 11 100 W 3 1 380 W 5 1656 P 12/16-02 86 24 10 100 W 2 2 2 1 W52 324 W 3 1072 P 12/16-03 86 24 9 100 W 2 1 339 W 3 1140 P 12/16-04 86 24 8 100 W 2 1 354 NW 3 1208 P 12/16-05 62 21 9 93 W 2 2 2 1 W52 369 NW 3 1276 P 12/16-06 62 21 8 93 NW 2 1 388 NW 3 1109 P 12/16-07 62 21 7 95 N 2 1 407 N 2 942 P 12/16-08 62 21 8 93 NE 2 2 2 1 W46 425 N 2 775 P 12/16-09 62 21 12 90 NE 2 1 1798 N 2 3321 P 12/16-10 62 21 15 91 NE 3 1 3170 W 2 5866 P 12/16-11 78 10 18 90 NE 3 3 2 1 W37 4542 W 2 8412 P 12/16-12 78 10 21 85 NE 5 1 4798 W 2 11467 P 12/16-13 78 10 22 80 NE 5 1 5055 W 3 14522 P 12/16-14 78 10 22 75 NE 6 6 2 1 W36 5311 W 3 17577 P 12/16-15 78 10 21 73 NE 7 1 5093 W 3 15052 P 12/16-16 78 10 20 71 NE 7 1 4874 N 3 12527 P 12/16-17 49 9 16 81 N 7 7 2 1 W36 4656 N 2 10002 P 12/16-18 49 9 14 86 N 7 1 4040 N 3 10871 P 12/16-19 49 9 13 91 NE 6 1 3425 NE 5 11741 P 12/16-20 49 9 12 94 NE 5 5 2 1 W35 2809 NE 5 12610 P 12/16-21 49 9 11 97 N 3 1 2608 N 3 9071 P 12/16-22 49 9 11 99 N 3 1 2408 N 2 5532 P 12/16-23 49 5 10 100 N 2 2 2 1 W32 2207 CALM 1992 P 12/17-00 49 5 9 100 CALM 1 1719 CALM 1466 P 12/17-01 49 5 8 99 CALM 1 1232 CALM 940 P 12/17-02 49 5 7 97 CALM 1 2 1 NW39 745 CALM 413 P 12/17-03 49 5 7 94 CALM 1 602 CALM 514 P 12/17-04 49 5 6 91 SW 2 1 459 SW 2 614 P 12/17-05 33 7 5 89 W 2 2 2 1 NW45 316 W 2 715 P 12/17-06 33 7 5 87 W 2 1 331 W 3 853 P 12/17-07 33 7 4 85 SW 3 1 347 W 3 991 P 12/17-08 33 7 5 79 SW 3 3 2 1 NW40 362 W 3 1129 P 12/17-09 33 7 10 64 SW 5 1 1549 W 6 13302 P 12/17-10 33 7 13 55 SW 5 1 2737 W 8 25475 P 12/17-11 24 8 17 48 SW 6 6 2 1 W39 3924 W 12 37648 P 12/17-12 24 8 19 47 SW 7 1 4048 W 13 46240 F 12/17-13 24 8 20 49 W 8 1 4171 W 15 54833 F 12/17-14 24 8 21 52 W 9 15 4 1 W39 4294 W 17 63425 G 12/17-15 24 8 20 56 W 9 1 3866 W 18 60067 G 12/17-16 24 8 20 61 SW 8 1 3438 W 20 56708 F 12/17-17 57 10 17 70 SW 8 13 4 1 W40 3010 W 21 53350 F 12/17-18 57 10 16 75 SW 8 1 2628 W 21 47111 F 12/17-19 57 10 15 79 SW 9 1 2246 W 21 40871 F 12/17-20 57 10 15 82 SW 10 16 2 1 NW45 1865 W 22 34632 P 12/17-21 57 10 14 83 SW 12 1 1636 W 22 30500 P 12/17-22 57 10 14 84 SW 12 1 1408 SW 22 26368 P 12/17-23 76 10 13 85 SW 12 18 2 1 NW53 1179 SW 22 22237 P 12/18-00 76 10 13 86 SW 12 1 1031 SW 21 18987 P 12/18-01 76 10 12 86 SW 10 1 883 SW 21 15736 P 12/18-02 76 10 12 87 SW 10 16 2 1 NW51 736 SW 20 12486 P 12/18-03 76 10 11 87 SW 10 1 605 SW 18 9855 P 12/18-04 76 10 11 87 SW 12 1 475 SW 17 7224 P 12/18-05 52 31 10 88 SW 12 18 2 1 W47 344 SW 15 4593 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...CASEY CHEESBROUGH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20101215.BIGCR.01/BOU