FNUS75 KGJT 150938
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR OLD MONARCH...USFS GUNNISON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
238 AM MST WED DEC 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 MST ON DECEMBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWERS AND SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. STABLE
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS BUT STRONG TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL PRODUCE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL. THE COLD FRONT WORKS OVER
THE BURN SITE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOWFALL INTENSITY. SNOW
WILL BECOME CONVECTIVE AND SHOWERY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD EXCEPT EXCELLENT IN SHOWERS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 38 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
                    SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN SNOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 35 MPH...SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
                    25 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN SHOWERS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...MIFMU
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101215.OLDMO.01/GJT