FNUS72 KJAX 161412
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR 4ON4...FLORIDA DIVISION OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
912 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 EST ON JANUARY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT A RED FLAG EVENT. WEAK SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL KEEP DISPERSION VALUES FAIR TO POOR TODAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA ON
MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE BROAD LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING GULF LOW AND HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH MONDAY.

.TODAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....62.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 MPH LATE IN THE
                    MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....21.

TIME (EST)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............62     62     59
RH..............34     34     52
20 FT WIND......NE 5   E 5    NE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2800   2900   2900
TRANSPORT WIND..E 7    NE 7   NE 7

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....41.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 3 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
TEMP............55     50     47     45     44     43
RH..............52     68     74     79     85     93
20 FT WIND......NE 3   NE 3   NE 2   NE 2   NE 2   NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....2900   900    600    600    300    500
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 7   NE 8   NE 6   NE 6   E 3    E 7

$$
FORECASTER...CARROLL
REQUESTED BY...BARRY L  COULLIETTE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110116.4ON4_.01/JAX