FNUS75 KBOU 201205 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SUGARLOAF 151...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 505 AM MST THU JAN 20 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL OCCUR IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ABOVE THE BURN. COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS FRONT ALONG WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE WILL AID IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EVEN MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS A JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. HURRICANE HILL TO THE WEST OF THE BURN SITE COULD MAKE THESE WEST WINDS A BIT ERRATIC AND VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL HAVE BETTER DISPERSAL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MORE SNOW WILL BE ON THE WAY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE DISTURBANCE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....20. MIN HUMIDITY........59%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN 20-28 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 25-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0500. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0500. MIN TEMPERATURE.....17. MAX HUMIDITY........72%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. WEST WINDS 26-36 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-44 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 48-56 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....31. MIN HUMIDITY........51%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 19-29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 33-44 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 2800-3800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1500...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SUGARLOAF 151. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 01/20-04 67 10 13 80 W 8 1 1791 NW 15 23879 P 01/20-05 41 0 11 93 W 9 15 2 1 NW45 1830 NW 17 26686 P 01/20-06 41 0 9 100 W 10 1 1777 NW 17 26226 P 01/20-07 41 0 10 99 W 12 1 1724 NW 17 25766 P 01/20-08 41 0 10 100 W 12 18 2 1 N40 1670 NW 17 25306 P 01/20-09 41 0 13 88 W 12 1 1913 NW 20 32632 P 01/20-10 41 0 14 85 W 12 1 2156 NW 21 39957 P 01/20-11 30 0 17 77 W 12 18 3 1 N53 2399 NW 23 47283 F 01/20-12 30 0 18 72 W 13 1 2101 NW 23 42237 F 01/20-13 30 0 19 67 W 14 1 1804 NW 24 37191 P 01/20-14 30 0 20 63 W 16 25 3 1 NW51 1506 W 24 32145 P 01/20-15 30 0 19 61 W 20 1 1369 W 28 32678 P 01/20-16 30 0 19 59 W 24 1 1233 W 32 33212 P 01/20-17 46 0 19 59 W 28 44 3 1 NW44 1096 W 36 33745 P 01/20-18 46 0 18 59 W 30 1 1025 W 37 32315 P 01/20-19 46 0 18 59 W 31 1 953 W 38 30885 P 01/20-20 46 0 17 59 W 32 52 2 1 NW52 881 W 38 29455 P 01/20-21 46 0 17 60 W 32 1 832 W 40 28971 P 01/20-22 46 0 17 59 W 32 1 782 W 43 28487 P 01/20-23 49 10 17 59 W 32 52 2 1 NW51 732 W 44 28003 P 01/21-00 49 10 17 58 W 32 1 731 W 47 30222 P 01/21-01 49 10 17 57 W 32 1 729 W 52 32441 P 01/21-02 49 10 17 57 W 32 52 2 1 NW48 727 W 55 34661 P 01/21-03 49 10 17 57 W 32 1 737 W 53 33665 P 01/21-04 49 10 17 57 W 32 1 747 W 51 32669 P 01/21-05 50 7 17 59 W 32 48 2 1 NW66 757 W 48 31674 P 01/21-06 50 7 17 64 W 29 1 822 W 44 30568 P 01/21-07 50 7 17 68 W 26 1 886 W 39 29463 P 01/21-08 50 7 17 72 W 23 35 2 1 NW56 951 W 35 28357 P 01/21-09 50 7 21 64 W 21 1 1642 W 33 47516 F 01/21-10 50 7 23 61 W 20 1 2334 NW 33 66675 G 01/21-11 51 1 27 55 W 18 28 2 1 NW62 3026 NW 32 85833 G 01/21-12 51 1 28 53 W 18 1 3679 NW 36 117522 V 01/21-13 51 1 30 51 W 20 1 4332 NW 39 149210 V 01/21-14 51 1 31 51 W 20 30 2 1 NW63 4985 NW 41 180899 E 01/21-15 51 1 30 53 W 18 1 4057 NW 40 144490 V 01/21-16 51 1 28 59 W 18 1 3129 NW 39 108082 V 01/21-17 52 1 25 66 W 17 26 4 1 N66 2201 NW 38 71673 G 01/21-18 53 1 23 71 W 17 1 1816 NW 32 54853 F 01/21-19 55 1 23 70 W 17 1 1432 NW 28 38033 P 01/21-20 56 1 22 70 W 17 25 4 1 NW46 1048 NW 23 21213 P 01/21-21 58 1 22 67 W 17 1 1020 W 22 19923 P 01/21-22 59 1 22 66 W 18 1 992 W 22 18634 P 01/21-23 60 0 23 64 W 18 28 3 1 NW46 964 W 21 17345 P 01/22-00 61 0 23 63 W 18 1 964 W 23 19269 P 01/22-01 63 0 22 64 W 20 1 964 W 25 21193 P 01/22-02 64 0 23 62 W 21 30 2 1 NW49 964 W 28 23117 P 01/22-03 66 0 22 65 W 21 1 868 W 32 23452 P 01/22-04 67 0 21 69 W 22 1 772 W 37 23787 P 01/22-05 68 16 20 75 W 22 33 2 1 NW48 676 W 41 24122 P 01/22-06 71 16 19 79 W 23 1 660 W 44 24732 P 01/22-07 73 16 20 80 W 23 1 643 W 45 25342 P 01/22-08 75 16 20 81 W 23 35 2 1 W30 627 W 47 25951 P 01/22-09 78 16 23 70 W 23 1 1352 W 48 57080 F 01/22-10 80 16 25 65 W 23 1 2076 W 48 88209 G 01/22-11 81 28 28 58 W 22 33 2 1 W20 2801 W 49 119337 V 01/22-12 81 28 29 55 W 20 1 3603 W 44 131973 V 01/22-13 81 28 31 50 W 16 1 4405 NW 39 144608 V 01/22-14 81 28 32 49 NW 14 20 2 1 W22 5207 NW 35 157243 E 01/22-15 81 28 31 50 NW 10 1 4734 NW 32 132957 V 01/22-16 81 28 27 58 NW 8 1 4262 NW 29 108671 V 01/22-17 81 30 22 69 NW 7 7 3 1 NW15 3789 NW 25 84385 G 01/22-18 81 30 20 75 NW 7 1 3532 NW 25 78724 G 01/22-19 81 30 20 77 NW 8 1 3275 NW 25 73064 G 01/22-20 79 30 19 79 NW 9 14 3 1 W28 3019 NW 25 67403 G 01/22-21 74 30 20 78 NW 9 1 3636 NW 25 80390 G 01/22-22 70 30 19 80 NW 9 1 4253 NW 25 93376 G 01/22-23 65 30 20 77 NW 9 14 2 1 NW23 4870 NW 25 106362 V 01/23-00 61 30 20 76 NW 10 1 4934 NW 25 109707 V 01/23-01 56 30 19 76 NW 10 1 4997 NW 26 113051 V 01/23-02 51 30 21 71 W 12 17 2 1 NW32 5060 NW 26 116396 V 01/23-03 47 30 20 74 W 13 1 4380 NW 29 106998 V 01/23-04 42 30 18 77 W 14 1 3701 NW 31 97601 G 01/23-05 40 4 16 84 W 14 21 2 1 N33 3021 NW 33 88204 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ED LEBLANC REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110120.SUGAR.01/BOU