FNUS74 KAMA 240044
FWSAMA

SPOT FORECAST FOR RANCHO PALO DURO TOBE SMITH FLAT RX...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY/USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON JANUARY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES MONDAY
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY NOON. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY...BUT 20 FOOT
WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 20 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........33 AT IGNITION...MAX 49.
RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    NORTH WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY NOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1500 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 6000-6500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH
                    22 TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 19.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55.
RH..................MIN 14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 6500-7500 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 5500
                    FT AGL DECREASING TO 3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 14 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BEAL
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS HARPER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110124.RANCH.01/AMA