FNUS74 KAMA 241214 FWSAMA SPOT FORECAST FOR RANCHO PALO DURO TOBE SMITH FLAT RX...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY/USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 614 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON JANUARY 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO NORTH EXPECTED AROUND 0830 CST. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT...THEREBY KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW ELEVATED OR CRITICAL LEVELS. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ALLOWING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO JUST UNDER 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH... SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........34 AT IGNITION...MAX 43. RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 18 TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 13 TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 23 TO 32 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............34 38 40 42 43 43 41 RH..............49 42 41 38 38 38 43 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NE NE NE N 20 FT WIND SPD..13 15 16 17 20 20 18 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 25 30 30 25 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 21. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....SW SW SW SW SW SW TEMP............37 33 31 30 28 27 26 25 24 23 23 22 RH..............50 61 66 72 78 85 88 92 92 96 92 96 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55. RH..................MIN 21 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500-7000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 13 MPH. TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............21 21 21 27 34 40 46 50 54 55 55 52 RH..............96 96 96 78 58 46 37 29 24 21 21 24 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW W W SW SW W W SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 9 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...COCKRELL REQUESTED BY...CHRIS HARPER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110124.RANCH.02/AMA