FNUS74 KAMA 242049 AAB
FWSAMA

SPOT FORECAST FOR RANCHO PALO DURO TOBE SMITH FLAT RX...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
249 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON JANUARY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BURN SITE TONIGHT AND
WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES...MAINLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN
1800 CST AND 2400 CST AT THE BURN SITE. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
0000 CST TUESDAY ONCE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST AWAY FROM
THE BURN SITE. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN OVER THE BURN SITE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE BURN SITE TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AT THE BURN SITE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 21.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............37     31     28     26     24     23
RH..............56     72     85     92     96     92

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500-7500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............21     21     33     45     52     53
RH..............96     92     56     35     26     23
20 FT WIND......NW 7   W 7    W 7    W 7    W 7    SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...SCHNEIDER
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS HARPER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110124.RANCH.02/AMA