FNUS75 KBOU 251605 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FISH CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 905 AM MST TUE JAN 25 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AFTER 1200. ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WHICH COULD LIMIT THE AFTERNOON SMOKE DISPERSION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER 1400 BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE BURN AREA. AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL DECREASE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS. AS A RESULT...SMOKE DISPERSION SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 1200. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1100... THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1200... THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1600. MAX TEMPERATURE.....31-35. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-16 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH AFTER 1500. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...INCREASING TO 2600-3600 FT AGL AFTER 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....15-19. MAX HUMIDITY........85-90%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100. MAX TEMPERATURE.....30-35. MIN HUMIDITY........45-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FEET AGL...INCREASING TO 4400-5400 FT AGL AFTER 1000...LOWERING TO 1800-2800 FT AGL AFTER 1600. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR. GOOD AFTER 1100. FAIR AFTER 1500...THEN POOR AFTER 1700. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FISH CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 01/25-08 43 10 18 33 W 16 24 5 1 NW20 337 W 15 4486 P 01/25-09 43 10 21 35 W 15 1 724 W 15 9101 P 01/25-10 43 10 24 38 W 13 1 1111 W 15 13717 P 01/25-11 72 10 25 43 W 12 17 4 1 W15 1498 W 14 18332 P 01/25-12 72 10 31 38 W 10 1 2561 W 13 24785 P 01/25-13 72 20 30 42 W 8 1 3623 NW 10 31238 P 01/25-14 76 20 30 43 W 7 7 2 1 W17 4686 NW 9 37691 P 01/25-15 76 20 27 53 W 5 1 3782 NW 8 28486 P 01/25-16 76 20 25 62 SW 2 1 2878 N 7 19282 P 01/25-17 85 40 21 77 CALM 1 2 1 NW15 1974 N 6 10077 P 01/25-18 85 40 19 84 SW 2 1 1485 N 6 7695 P 01/25-19 85 40 17 89 W 3 1 995 NW 7 5314 P 01/25-20 85 40 17 89 W 6 6 2 1 N15 506 NW 7 2932 P 01/25-21 85 40 17 87 W 6 1 585 NW 7 3718 P 01/25-22 85 40 16 88 W 6 1 664 NW 8 4505 P 01/25-23 89 40 17 84 W 6 6 2 1 N15 743 NW 8 5291 P 01/26-00 89 40 17 83 W 6 1 734 NW 8 5062 P 01/26-01 89 40 16 86 NW 7 1 725 NW 8 4833 P 01/26-02 88 40 16 85 NW 7 7 2 1 N20 716 NW 7 4604 P 01/26-03 88 40 18 81 NW 7 1 860 NW 8 6695 P 01/26-04 88 40 18 81 NW 7 1 1004 NW 9 8785 P 01/26-05 74 15 18 80 NW 7 7 3 1 N23 1148 N 10 10875 P 01/26-06 74 15 21 72 NW 7 1 1686 N 13 19093 P 01/26-07 74 15 20 73 NW 6 1 2223 N 14 27310 P 01/26-08 74 15 23 66 NW 6 6 2 1 N25 2761 N 15 35528 P 01/26-09 74 15 24 63 NW 6 1 3644 N 15 48948 F 01/26-10 74 15 27 57 NW 5 1 4527 N 16 62368 G 01/26-11 54 7 28 54 NW 5 5 2 1 N35 5410 N 16 75788 G 01/26-12 54 7 30 49 NW 5 1 5415 N 16 75538 G 01/26-13 54 7 30 49 NW 5 1 5419 N 16 75289 G 01/26-14 54 7 30 48 NW 5 5 2 1 N36 5424 N 16 75040 G 01/26-15 54 7 30 48 NW 6 1 4149 NW 16 57535 F 01/26-16 54 7 29 50 W 8 1 2874 NW 16 40031 F 01/26-17 50 3 23 62 W 10 16 2 1 N37 1599 NW 16 22526 P 01/26-18 50 3 21 65 W 12 1 1223 NW 15 16627 P 01/26-19 50 3 20 66 NW 13 1 846 NW 14 10729 P 01/26-20 50 3 20 66 NW 14 22 2 1 N44 470 NW 12 4830 P 01/26-21 50 3 20 64 NW 14 1 436 NW 13 4604 P 01/26-22 50 3 19 64 W 14 1 403 W 13 4379 P 01/26-23 47 3 19 61 W 14 22 2 1 N46 370 W 13 4153 P 01/27-00 47 3 19 60 W 14 1 361 W 13 4081 P 01/27-01 47 3 19 60 W 15 1 353 W 13 4009 P 01/27-02 47 3 19 59 W 15 24 3 1 N47 344 W 13 3937 P 01/27-03 47 3 18 59 W 15 1 323 W 14 3795 P 01/27-04 47 3 18 58 W 15 1 303 W 14 3653 P 01/27-05 41 2 19 58 W 15 24 2 1 N40 282 W 14 3512 P 01/27-06 41 2 18 59 W 14 1 298 W 14 3494 P 01/27-07 41 2 18 60 W 14 1 313 W 13 3476 P 01/27-08 41 2 20 57 W 13 20 2 1 N33 328 W 13 3458 P 01/27-09 41 2 23 51 W 12 1 712 W 13 8585 P 01/27-10 41 2 27 46 W 10 1 1096 NW 14 13712 P 01/27-11 42 2 29 44 W 10 16 2 1 N22 1480 NW 15 18838 P 01/27-12 42 2 35 35 W 10 1 2760 NW 15 37942 P 01/27-13 42 2 35 37 W 12 1 4040 NW 16 57045 F 01/27-14 42 2 39 33 W 13 20 2 1 NW18 5320 NW 16 76148 G 01/27-15 42 2 36 38 W 14 1 4017 NW 18 59548 F 01/27-16 42 2 34 43 W 14 1 2714 NW 20 42948 F 01/27-17 38 4 30 50 W 15 24 2 1 NW29 1410 NW 22 26348 P 01/27-18 38 4 29 53 W 15 1 1185 NW 20 20723 P 01/27-19 38 4 27 54 W 15 1 960 NW 17 15097 P 01/27-20 38 4 27 53 W 15 23 2 1 N43 734 NW 15 9472 P 01/27-21 38 4 27 52 W 14 1 689 NW 15 8784 P 01/27-22 38 4 26 51 W 14 1 643 W 15 8096 P 01/27-23 38 4 27 49 W 14 22 2 1 N41 597 W 14 7408 P 01/28-00 37 4 26 48 W 14 1 624 W 15 7937 P 01/28-01 35 4 26 49 W 15 1 650 W 15 8465 P 01/28-02 33 4 26 49 W 15 24 2 1 N39 676 W 15 8994 P 01/28-03 31 4 25 50 W 16 1 693 W 15 9301 P 01/28-04 29 4 25 51 W 16 1 710 W 16 9609 P 01/28-05 28 7 25 53 W 16 25 3 1 NW33 727 W 16 9916 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JAMES WHITE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110125.FISHC.01/BOU