FNUS75 KGJT 010453
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR COCHETOPA PILES...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
953 PM MST MON JAN 31 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON FEBRUARY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY (TUESDAY)
...MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE SMOKE DISPERSAL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL PASS OVER THE SITE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SHIFTING AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC
TRANSPORT WINDS. THE GENERAL WIND DIRECTION WILL START OFF AS
SOUTHEASTERLY...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT AND CIRCULATION PASS SOUTH OF THE SITE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....4-9 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 13 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-17500 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1100, THEN FAIR.
                    INCREASING TO GOOD BY 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH UNTIL ABOUT 1300...THEN GRADUALLY
                    SHIFTING TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH BY ABOUT
                    1400-1500.


.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....21 BELOW TO 15 BELOW F.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 12 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9600-21800 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...CHRIS CUOCO
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN STEVENS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110201.COCHE.01/GJT