FNUS72 KJAX 011731
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SWARTHOUT 2...USDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1231 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1255 EST ON FEBRUARY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN BEGIN TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTH INTO A LOW CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD. THIS EVENING...IT IS
HIGHLY POSSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH DENSE
FOG IN SOME AREAS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....71.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LVORI...............MISSING.

TIME (EST)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........75     75     75
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............73     74     74
RH..............62     59     62
20 FT WIND......S 10   S 12   S 10
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....4400   4400   2600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 18   S 18   S 16
LVORI...........M      M      M
DISPERSION INDX.72     72     48
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0100...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-600 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 12 TO 16 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....10.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........75     77     90     90     91     93
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............70     66     64     63     62     61
RH..............68     79     85     91     96     100
20 FT WIND......S 8    S 8    S 9    S 12   S 12   S 12
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....2600   800    600    600    400    600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 16   S 14   S 12   S 12   S 12   S 15
LVORI...........6      6      6      6      6      6
DISPERSION INDX.48     15     13     10     10     13
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     20     20     20     50     50
LAL.............1      1      1      1      2      2

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 14 TO 18 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....38.

$$
FORECASTER...ENYEDI
REQUESTED BY...PETE MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110201.SWART.01/JAX