FNUS75 KBOU 031643 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ARSENAL PILES...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 943 AM MST THU FEB 3 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING OUT OF WYOMING TODAY TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AROUND NOON SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION...COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH THROUGH THE DAY. SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BE FAIR AT BEST WITH POOR BEING THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1400...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....30. MIN HUMIDITY........28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-11 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST 10-14 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN SOUTHWEST 7-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTH 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 1600-2600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....17. MAX HUMIDITY........79%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1700...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....48. MIN HUMIDITY........32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100. 4000-5000 FT AGL AFTER 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ARSENAL PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 02/03-09 71 0 16 50 SW 5 1 189 SW 10 1611 P 02/03-10 71 0 18 46 W 8 1 293 W 10 2429 P 02/03-11 71 17 21 38 W 10 20 2 1 NE45 397 W 9 3247 P 02/03-12 71 17 28 31 NW 13 1 1521 NW 13 21663 P 02/03-13 71 17 32 28 N 12 1 2646 N 15 40079 F 02/03-14 71 55 33 28 N 10 19 2 1 N40 3771 N 18 58494 F 02/03-15 71 55 33 30 NW 8 1 2848 N 14 40344 F 02/03-16 71 55 32 32 SW 5 1 1925 N 9 22193 P 02/03-17 71 55 30 36 S 2 2 2 1 N35 1001 N 5 4042 P 02/03-18 71 55 27 44 S 2 1 721 NW 5 2885 P 02/03-19 71 55 24 53 SW 3 1 440 W 5 1728 P 02/03-20 71 55 22 61 SW 6 6 2 1 N39 159 SW 5 571 P 02/03-21 71 55 21 66 SW 7 1 144 SW 5 617 P 02/03-22 71 55 19 73 SW 8 1 128 SW 6 664 P 02/03-23 71 55 19 77 S 9 14 2 1 NE39 112 SW 7 710 P 02/04-00 45 5 19 76 S 12 1 115 SW 9 903 P 02/04-01 45 5 21 67 SW 13 1 118 SW 10 1095 P 02/04-02 45 5 20 69 SW 14 21 2 1 NE31 120 SW 13 1287 P 02/04-03 45 5 20 67 SW 14 1 119 SW 12 1220 P 02/04-04 45 5 20 66 SW 13 1 117 SW 12 1154 P 02/04-05 60 7 19 68 SW 12 17 2 1 NE30 115 SW 10 1087 P 02/04-06 60 7 18 72 S 12 1 115 SW 10 1022 P 02/04-07 60 7 17 78 S 10 1 114 S 9 957 P 02/04-08 60 7 18 80 S 10 10 3 1 N28 114 S 9 892 P 02/04-09 60 7 26 61 S 9 1 452 SW 7 1712 P 02/04-10 60 7 31 53 S 7 1 791 W 6 2532 P 02/04-11 55 7 37 43 S 6 6 2 1 N24 1130 W 3 3351 P 02/04-12 55 7 44 35 S 5 1 2546 W 6 17633 P 02/04-13 55 7 47 32 S 5 1 3963 NW 8 31915 P 02/04-14 55 7 48 32 S 5 5 2 1 N36 5380 N 10 46197 F 02/04-15 55 7 48 33 S 5 1 4791 N 9 37702 P 02/04-16 55 7 47 35 S 5 1 4202 NW 8 29207 P 02/04-17 73 11 45 39 S 5 5 2 1 N41 3613 NW 7 20712 P 02/04-18 73 11 41 46 S 5 1 2599 NW 7 15010 P 02/04-19 73 11 38 53 S 5 1 1586 W 7 9307 P 02/04-20 73 11 36 58 S 6 6 2 1 N43 572 W 7 3605 P 02/04-21 73 11 35 60 S 7 1 501 W 8 3343 P 02/04-22 73 11 33 64 S 8 1 430 SW 8 3080 P 02/04-23 73 11 33 66 S 9 9 2 1 N33 358 SW 9 2818 P 02/05-00 73 11 33 67 S 10 1 509 SW 9 3837 P 02/05-01 73 11 35 62 S 10 1 659 SW 8 4856 P 02/05-02 73 11 34 65 S 10 10 2 1 NW29 810 SW 8 5874 P 02/05-03 73 11 34 66 S 10 1 810 SW 9 6718 P 02/05-04 73 11 34 67 S 10 1 810 SW 10 7562 P 02/05-05 65 10 33 69 S 9 9 2 1 NW23 810 SW 12 8405 P 02/05-06 65 10 32 69 S 8 1 748 W 10 7105 P 02/05-07 65 10 31 70 S 7 1 686 W 9 5804 P 02/05-08 65 10 32 67 SW 6 6 3 1 NW15 624 W 8 4503 P 02/05-09 65 10 36 55 SW 6 1 1522 W 8 9600 P 02/05-10 65 10 38 49 W 7 1 2421 W 7 14697 P 02/05-11 65 10 41 43 W 8 8 2 1 NW17 3319 NW 7 19794 P 02/05-12 65 10 44 39 NW 7 1 4448 NW 7 27395 P 02/05-13 65 10 46 38 NW 7 1 5577 W 7 34996 P 02/05-14 65 10 47 39 NW 6 6 2 1 NW18 6706 W 7 42598 F 02/05-15 65 10 46 42 NW 6 1 5718 W 10 46260 F 02/05-16 65 10 46 46 NW 7 1 4730 W 14 49923 F 02/05-17 69 33 43 53 NW 7 7 2 1 W22 3742 W 16 53586 F 02/05-18 69 33 38 63 NW 7 1 2555 W 13 36027 P 02/05-19 69 33 34 74 NW 6 1 1369 W 9 18469 P 02/05-20 69 33 31 80 W 5 5 3 1 NW21 182 W 6 910 P 02/05-21 69 33 30 81 NW 3 1 165 W 5 657 P 02/05-22 69 33 28 84 NW 3 1 148 W 2 405 P 02/05-23 69 33 27 85 N 2 2 3 1 NW29 131 CALM 152 P 02/06-00 69 33 27 83 N 2 1 150 NW 2 299 P 02/06-01 69 33 31 73 NW 2 1 170 NW 2 445 P 02/06-02 69 33 29 78 NW 2 2 3 1 NW35 189 NW 3 592 P 02/06-03 69 33 29 78 NW 3 1 964 NW 10 17116 P 02/06-04 69 33 29 79 N 5 1 1738 N 16 33640 P 02/06-05 83 27 28 81 N 6 6 2 1 W26 2513 N 23 50163 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JASON FALLON REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110203.ARSEN.01/BOU