FNUS72 KILM 081456 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SHOESTRING...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 956 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1430 EST ON FEBRUARY 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 25 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AROUND 38 PERCENT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A BROTAK WIND PROFILE TODAY. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....88000 TIME (EST) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............10 8 7 6 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................52 52 51 49 RH..................41 40 39 42 20 FT WIND DIR......NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......10 10 8 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 20 15 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 21. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 200-300 FT AGL IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH...BECOMING CALM. VENTILATION RATE....DECREASING TO NEARLY ZERO LATE. TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............5 4 4 5 6 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................45 41 39 36 34 31 29 27 26 25 24 23 RH..................47 54 59 66 72 77 80 82 83 84 84 84 20 FT WIND DIR......NW NW NW N N N N N N NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD......5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....CALM...BECOMING EAST AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. VENTILATION RATE....28000. TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............0 17 19 22 24 27 30 31 35 43 51 59 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................22 22 28 36 43 45 48 49 49 50 49 48 RH..................85 86 78 61 49 44 42 41 42 43 45 49 20 FT WIND DIR......NE NE NE NE NE E E E E E NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD......4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110208.SHOES.01/ILM