FNUS76 KMFR 122156
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR RX WINDBURN RIDGE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
156 PM PST SAT FEB 12 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 PST ON FEBRUARY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST TODAY AND WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO STAY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE BURN AREA TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AREA TODAY CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
THEN IT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A SECOND STRONGER
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.

THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND IT WILL BRING MODERATE PRECITION. INITIALLY EXPECT
RAIN BEGINNING LATE MONDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...DECREASING
IN INTENSITY AND BECOMING SHOWERY TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.


.TODAY...

MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS
                     OF 18 TO 24 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 18 TO 28 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH  IN THE EVENING
                      WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTH
                      5 TO 10 MPH OVER NIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 25 TO 32 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    DECREASING TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING THEN
                    DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                     TO 5 TO 10 IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO
                     A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN THE EARLY TO MID
                     AFTERNOON THEN RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE
                     AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1500 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
                     2000-3000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 22 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...CLARSTROM
REQUESTED BY...DEB MCGUIRE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110212.RXWIN.01/MFR