FNUS72 KILM 141437
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR BURNS PROPERTY  2...NC FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
937 AM EST MON FEB 14 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0955 EST ON FEBRUARY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY INLAND FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS...

.DISCUSSION...
MILD TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...
A BROTAK WIND PROFILE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ALL OF
THIS COMBINED...WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP BY THE END OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS SUNDAY.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2400-4000 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH...BECOMING WEST 28 TO 40
                    MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

TIME (EST)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TEMP................49  57  61  63  67  68  68  67  65
RH..................52  39  33  30  26  26  26  29  32
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......8   9   12  13  15  16  17  15  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  20  26  29  30  35  30  28  21

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
MAX HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 25 MPH.

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............2      4      0      0      0      0
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................60     54     49     47     45     43
RH..................38     49     58     61     60     58
20 FT WIND..........W 10   W 8    W 7    NW 6   NW 6   NW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....20     15     15     15     15     10

$$

FORECASTER...COLBY
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN COUNCIL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110214.BURNS.02/ILM