FNUS72 KMLB 141429
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR NSCA...DIVISION OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
929 AM EST MON FEB 14 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
ACROSS THE BURN AREA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL NUDGE INTO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK AROUND
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SLOWER APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH
WOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH AT THE BURN SITE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUES
THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WILL KEEP RED FLAG
WARNING UP FOR THE BURN SITE THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING AS MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL 35 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR
A NUMBER OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3000-3400 FT AGL THIS
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....AROUND 30.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
SKY (%).........CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............61     66     70     69     60     53
RH..............44     34     29     31     44     61
20 FT WIND......NW 7   NW 8   NW 9   NW 9   NW 9   W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.       10     10     10     10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH DECREASING TO
                    AROUND 5 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............5.

$$
FORECASTER...GUSEMAN/LASCODY
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN DILLON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110214.NSCA_.01/MLB