FNUS71 KRNK 151055 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR LUMBER PLANT FIRE...NCFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 555 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1805 EST ON FEBRUARY 14... BUT IS USING THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION AVAILABLE AS OF 0500 EST FEBRUARY 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS... THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY. WINDS WILL ABATE TODAY. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME GUSTINESS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR FEWER GUSTS AND AN OVERALL DOWNTICK IN MAGNITUDE. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY...AND REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN LOOK SLIM...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MOISTURE DRYING UP AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. && .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS (40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51. MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...TENDING SOUTHEAST 0-5 MPH LATE. CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13 TO 22 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT ABOUT 3000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON... BECOMING MAINLY SLOPE DRIVEN WITH UPSLOPE DURING THE PEAK HEATING PART OF THE AFTERNOON THE DOWNSLOPE TOWARD SUNSET. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............10 20 30 35 35 40 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................32 34 39 44 48 51 RH..................64 60 41 30 20 22 20 FT WIND..........N 14 N 14 N 11 N 6 NE 3 SE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....30 30 25 15 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)........300 500 1100 1400 2100 3000 TRANSPORT WIND......NW 17 N 20 N 22 N 13 NE 6 SE 6 CWR.................0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX........3 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-70 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33. MAX HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH. CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 16 TO 21 MPH OVERNIGHT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....MAINLY DOWN DRAINAGE...3 MPH OR LESS. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............48 53 55 54 55 58 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................46 43 41 40 39 37 RH..................27 33 38 42 45 47 20 FT WIND..........SE 5 S 5 S 4 S 2 S 2 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 5 5 CWR.................0 0 0 0 0 0 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDINESS (50 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 18 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT UPSLOPE...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............61 61 57 33 17 10 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................35 36 43 47 50 52 RH..................53 51 41 37 34 33 20 FT WIND..........S 1 S 2 S 2 S 4 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........200 500 1100 1400 1900 2500 TRANSPORT WIND......S 13 S 13 S 22 SW 21 SW 16 SW 13 CWR.................0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...MANUEL REQUESTED BY...STEVE WILLIAMS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110214.LUMBE.01/RNK