FNUS73 KJKL 150818
FWSJKL

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG SWAG...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
318 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INTO THE REGION
WILL BE DRY AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN GENERALLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 64. AS THE WEEK WEARS ON...A THERMAL BELT PATTERN OF
MUCH BETTER HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS AS COMPARED
TO THE RIDGES IS ANTICIPATED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5
                    MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5
                    MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING.
POP.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....38.

TIME (EST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........21     26     27     26     25
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............39     47     52     55     52
RH..............64     48     39     34     36
20 FT WIND......E 9    E 9    E 8    SE 7   SE 3
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     10     10     5
HAINES INDEX....4      4      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH LATE IN
                    THE EVENING.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    TOWARDS DAWN.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    TOWARDS DAWN.
POP.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........25     26     27     28     33     40
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............50     47     45     44     42     41
RH..............39     44     51     57     62     67
20 FT WIND......E 2    SE 3   S 6    S 7    S 7    S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
POP.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 22 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....124.

TIME (EST)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........46     52     59     65     61     56
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............41     44     50     55     58     57
RH..............71     66     56     49     46     48
20 FT WIND......S 9    S 10   S 9    S 9    S 9    S 9
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...DUSTY
REQUESTED BY...ROBIN ACCIARDO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110215.BIGSW.01/JKL