FNUS73 KJKL 150033
FWSJKL

SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSH CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
733 PM EST MON FEB 14 2011

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY FORECAST AS OF MONDAY EVENING. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 15. IF CONDITIONS
BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY AND THUS CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
AIRMASS THAT THE HIGH WILL BRING INTO THE REGION WILL BE RATHER DRY
AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT UNDER 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RELATED TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO MIXING HEIGHTS ON THE LOWER SIDE TODAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 25-28.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 90-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
POP.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........0      0      0      0      0      0
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............49     41     35     29     28     27
RH..............45     62     77     94     90     87
20 FT WIND......NW 5   NW 4   N 3    N 3    N 1    N 1
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      4      4      4

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........38-43 AT IGNITION...MAX 57-59.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24-27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AROUND 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH ABOUT 1400.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
POP.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE MAX 2600 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 11 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 AT IGNITION...25 MAX.

TIME (EST)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........0      6      11     21     17     15
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............26     35     44     52     56     55
RH..............90     70     48     33     27     28
20 FT WIND......E 3    E 6    E 6    E 6    SE 5   SE 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     5      5
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      5      5      5

$$
FORECASTER...PELTON
REQUESTED BY...ROBIN ACCIARDO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110215.MARSH.01/JKL