FNUS74 KEPZ 161459
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR GLENWOOD ADMIN  RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
759 AM MST WED FEB 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0745 MST ON FEBRUARY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
LOW RH VALUE LESS THAN 15% (SINGLE DIGITS LOW ELEVATIONS) AND
WINDS OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER RED FLAG WARNINGS.
CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH RED FLAG ON THURSDAY LOW ELEVATIONS AS
WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH BUT RH  VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL. IT MAY
BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY LATER TODAY.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH SOME BLOWING DUST
IN THE LOWLANDS. THE SURFACE FRONT CAUSING THIS WILL PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A SLIGHT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
THE GILAS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS WILL FOLLOW
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. AS A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA MOVES TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY...THE GILA REGION WILL
SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE
LOW LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO GIVING THE ENTIRE
BORDERLAND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. MIN RH VALUES WILL RUN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY AND AROUND 12% TO 15% ABOVE 7000
FEET BECOMING 15% TO 18% LOWLANDS AND AROUND 25% ABOVE 7000 FEET THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 8 TO 13 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING/VENT.........14 KTS/6700 FT/GOOD.


.TNIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT RISK OF A
                    HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32 TO 37.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 TO 50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH EVENING BECOMING WEST 8 TO 13 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT RISK FOR
                    HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWER.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING 15 TO 25 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500-6600 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS. VERY GOOD.

$$
FORECASTER...NOVLAN
REQUESTED BY...IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110216.GLENW.01/EPZ