FNUS75 KGJT 160221
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHIMNEY ROCK PILES...USFS SAN JUAN NF PAGOSA RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
721 PM MST TUE FEB 15 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON FEBRUARY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE BURN SITE TODAY AS A
STRONG PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 20000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING VERY GOOD BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN RISING TO
                    6500 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (26000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING
                    EXCELLENT 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN RISING TO
                    7000 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 29 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF COLTON
REQUESTED BY...FUELS TECH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110216.CHIMN.01/GJT